油脂走强、玉米大跌

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance, with strong performance in the oil sector led by palm oil, while corn, eggs, and other products continue to decline. Each variety is affected by different supply - demand fundamentals and technical factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each variety [1]. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - The palm oil 2509 contract rose significantly, driven by cost recovery and a decline in domestic inventories. As of August 1, 2025, the national key - area palm oil inventory was 58.22 tons, a 5.41% week - on - week decrease. The import cost rebounded on August 5. However, the weak fundamentals of increasing production and decreasing exports in Malaysia may limit its rebound space [2]. - Technically, the futures price stood above the moving average system, with the MACD green column shrinking. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 8964 and resistance at 9106 [3][4]. Soybean Oil - The soybean oil 2509 contract rose strongly to a new high, boosted by the strength of palm oil. Although domestic oil mills maintained high crushing volumes and soybean oil inventories continued to accumulate, there may be a supply gap in the future. China's exports of soybean oil to India also supported the price [5]. - Technically, the futures price was above the moving average system, with the MACD red column expanding. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 8260 and resistance at 8400 [5]. Corn - The corn 2509 contract fell significantly to a four - month low. Supply increased due to continuous auctions of imported corn by CGSGB, continuous wheat substitution, and good new - season corn production. Demand was weak as feed enterprises used previous inventories and deep - processing enterprises had poor profits [7]. - Technically, the futures price was below the moving average system, with the MACD green column expanding after a zero - axis death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 2220 and resistance at 2260 [7]. Eggs - The egg 2509 contract continued to decline, hitting a new low for the year. The supply was abundant as the culling of old hens was slow and the number of newly - laid hens increased. The July national in - production laying - hen inventory was about 1.292 billion, a 1.73% month - on - month and 7.14% year - on - year increase. Demand was weak due to postponed Mid - Autumn Festival stocking and other factors [9]. - Technically, the futures price was far below the moving average system, with the MACD green column significantly expanding after a death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 3300 and resistance at 3390 [9]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal 2509 contract first rose and then declined, with limited upside. The expected high inventory in August (above 1.2 million tons) pressured the price, but the increase in imported soybean costs and concerns about insufficient supply in the fourth quarter provided support [11]. - Technically, the futures price fluctuated above the moving averages. The strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3014 and resistance at 3050 [11]. Cotton - The cotton 2509 contract's rebound was blocked. Xinjiang's cotton production is expected to be good, and the market anticipates the issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas. The downstream textile industry is in a slump, with weak demand for cotton [13]. - Technically, the futures price fell below the moving averages, with the MACD green column continuing after a death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 13535 and resistance at 13750 [13]. Live Pigs - The live pig 2509 contract continued to fall to a one - and - a - half - month low. Supply increased as farmers accelerated the release of production capacity, and demand was weak due to high - temperature weather and increased alternative consumption [15]. - Technically, the futures price continued to fall, with the MACD green column continuing to expand after a death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 13770 and resistance at 14000 [15]. White Sugar - The Zhengzhou white sugar 2509 contract continued to fall, hitting a one - month low. The expectation of increased imported sugar volume pressured the price, and the future increase in processed sugar may slow down the inventory reduction of domestic sugar [17]. - Technically, the futures price was below the moving average system, with the MACD green column continuously expanding after a death cross. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 5680 and resistance at 5730 [17]. Red Dates - The red date 2601 contract first declined and then rose. There is an expected reduction in new - date production (estimated at 56 - 62 million tons, a 20 - 25% year - on - year decrease). The consumption is in the off - season, and the sample inventory is slowly decreasing [19]. - Technically, the futures price showed a strong trend, with the MACD red column continuing after a golden cross. The strategy is to hold light long positions, with support at 10720 and resistance at 11100 [19]. Apples - The apple 2510 contract continued to rebound, supported by short - covering. As of July 31, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 576,100 tons, 410,500 tons lower than the same period last year. The supply is a mix of old and new apples, and the demand is average [21]. - Technically, the futures price stood above the short - term moving averages. The strategy is to close short positions, with support at 7796 and resistance at 7900 [21].