中债策略周报-20250805

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weakening domestic demand is reflected by the July manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations, and the correction in the commodity market pricing this week is favorable for the bond market, with yields of different maturities declining. The potential returns are considerable considering the downward space of 10 - 12bp for the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields and the duration [3][6]. - In terms of fundamentals and monetary policy, the demand side remains weak, and the short - term policy stimulus expectations are retreating. The cooling of the commodity market and the stock market may be beneficial to the bond market due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. The opportunities in the first and middle ten - days of the month may be greater, while the situation in the last ten - days needs further observation [6]. - For the second half of the year, policy clues may be the main variable guiding the macro - economic trend. The loose monetary policy will continue, and the bond market can prioritize high - cost - effective varieties [35]. 3. Summary by Directory Bond Market Performance Review - Interest rate bonds: The yield curve has flattened. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp to 1.37%, and the yields of 3 - year and above decreased more significantly. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields decreased by 3.3bp and 3.4bp to 1.71% and 1.92% respectively [12][15]. - Credit bonds: The spreads generally widened. On the implied AA+ urban investment bond curve, the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year yields increased by 10bp, with the 5 - year yield reaching 2.04%. On the AAA - secondary capital bond curve, the 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year yields increased by 7bp, 14bp, and 14bp respectively [15]. Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - Local bonds: Issued 3372 billion yuan this week, with a net issuance of 2360 billion yuan, including 209 billion yuan of new general bonds, 1832 billion yuan of new special bonds (575 billion yuan of special special bonds), 877 billion yuan of ordinary refinancing bonds, and 454 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds [20]. - Treasury bonds: Issued 4061 billion yuan this week, with a net issuance of 107 billion yuan, including 830 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds [20]. - Policy - financial bonds: Issued 1580 billion yuan this week, with a net issuance of - 56 billion yuan [20]. Fund Market Situation - The cross - month capital market remained stable. Before the cross - month, the central bank's large - scale net reverse - repurchase injection made the capital market looser. The overnight interest rate fell below the OMO rate, and the R001 decreased by 19bp to 1.36%. On the cross - month day, the central bank's "unexpected" reduction in roll - over still maintained a balanced capital market [26]. - The overnight and one - week Shibor rates closed at 1.32% and 1.45%, changing by - 5bp and + 3.8bp respectively compared with last week. The overnight and one - week CNH Hibor rates closed at 1.1% and 1.28%, changing by - 43.1bp and - 36.2bp respectively compared with last week [26]. - The yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit mostly declined. The 1 - month AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit decreased by 6.9bp to 1.49%. The weighted issuance period of inter - bank certificates of deposit was compressed to 5.9 months. The average trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased from 7.70 trillion yuan last week to 6.72 trillion yuan [29]. China Bond Market Macro - environment Tracking and Outlook - The US dollar index has been below 100 for the past week, and the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate. The central bank may maintain a loose tone in the second half of the year. This week, the central bank conducted a basically equal - amount roll - over, with a net injection of 69 billion yuan [34]. - In terms of the macro - economic outlook, achieving the 5% annual target is not difficult. Policy clues will be the main variable guiding the macro - economic trend in the second half of the year. The loose monetary policy will continue, and the bond market can prioritize high - cost - effective varieties [35].