宏观经济点评报告：美国流动性新解：宽货币，弱信用，促泡沫

Group 1: Market Overview - Since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, there has been no large-scale financial risk exposure in the U.S. market[1] - Following the April 1.0 liberation day shock, U.S. stocks not only recovered but also reached new highs[1] - Concerns about liquidity have dissipated, supported by ample dollar liquidity despite the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction[1] Group 2: Liquidity and Credit Demand - The current liquidity level in the U.S. remains healthy, with risks stemming from potential mismatches and increased risk exposure after further liquidity injections[1] - A focus on credit creation efficiency is essential, as insufficient credit demand may arise despite abundant liquidity[1] - If interest rate cuts do not effectively transmit to long-term rates, the U.S. may face a macroeconomic scenario of excess liquidity but insufficient credit demand[1] Group 3: Banking System Analysis - As of Q1 2025, U.S. banks have approximately $900 billion in excess reserves, significantly higher than during the 2019 repo market crisis[7] - The liquidity supply capability of the banking system remains robust, with traditional large banks maintaining high liquidity supply in the repo market[7] - The distribution of reserves has become more even, with the top five banks bearing the brunt of the balance sheet reduction, enhancing the resilience of the financial system[9] Group 4: Structural Changes in Assets - The proportion of U.S. Treasury securities in the total loanable assets has increased by nearly 8 percentage points to 53% for traditional large banks[16] - The banking sector has unrealized losses totaling $410 billion, with about $260 billion from hold-to-maturity (HTM) assets, limiting liquidity[20] - The increase in HTM assets has led to longer asset durations, reflecting a decline in credit supply capabilities due to low demand for other loan types[21]