Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term trend of nickel and stainless steel is mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the support of nickel iron [1] - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was volatile, with no obvious logical changes in the fundamentals. The first - phase benchmark price for Indonesia in August was released, nickel ore prices stabilized with a slight upward movement, and downstream products were differentiated. Nickel iron prices continued to decline, and stainless steel showed a relatively strong intraday trend, but the stability of its current position remains to be tested. Macroscopically, the movement of the US dollar index can be followed [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. The predicted price range of stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [2] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - Inventory Management: When product sales prices fall and inventory has a risk of impairment, short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline risks (sell 60% of NI main contracts), and sell call options (sell 50% of over - the - counter/on - exchange options) [2] - Procurement Management: When a company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs on the futures market, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with trading volumes based on the procurement plan [2] Stainless Steel - Inventory Management: When product sales prices fall and inventory has a risk of impairment, short stainless steel futures according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline risks (sell 60% of SS main contracts), and sell call options (sell 50% of over - the - counter/on - exchange options) [3] - Procurement Management: When a company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs on the futures market, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with trading volumes based on the procurement plan [3] Market Conditions Nickel - The latest values of Shanghai nickel main continuous, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 contracts are 120,910 yuan/ton, 120,910 yuan/ton, 121,060 yuan/ton, and 121,230 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0%, 0.23%, 0.27%, and 0.27%. The latest value of LME nickel 3M is 15,105 US dollars/ton, with a daily change of 0.30%. Trading volume decreased by 29.62% to 84,818 lots, open interest decreased by 5.16% to 90,543 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.17% to 20,923 tons. The basis of the main contract increased by 75.0% to - 1,190 yuan/ton [6] Stainless Steel - The latest values of stainless steel main continuous, continuous 1, continuous 2, and continuous 3 contracts are 12,960 yuan/ton, 12,960 yuan/ton, 13,005 yuan/ton, and 13,035 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0%, 0.27%, 0.27%, and 0.15%. Trading volume decreased by 34.70% to 79,826 lots, open interest decreased by 1.74% to 85,949 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.06% to 102,865 tons. The basis of the main contract increased by 4.55% to 345 yuan/ton [7] Industry Inventory - Domestic social nickel inventory is 39,486 tons, a decrease of 795 tons from the previous period; LME nickel inventory is 211,254 tons, an increase of 2,172 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 966.2 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 33,415 tons, an increase of 182 tons [8] Factors Affecting the Market Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and include elements such as iron and cobalt; Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station may increase the demand for stainless steel; nickel iron trading is warming up [6] Negative Factors - Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow; pure nickel inventory is high; nickel ore seasonal inventory increases, and the bottom support is somewhat weakened; Sino - US tariff disturbances still exist [6]
镍、不锈钢：短期震荡为主，关注镍铁支撑
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-05 12:04