冠通每日交易策略-20250805

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Overall Futures Market: As of August 5th, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Coal and some other commodities rose, while lithium carbonate and others declined. In the stock index futures, all major contracts rose, and in the bond futures, most contracts also showed an upward trend [4]. - Copper: The US non - farm payroll data increased the expectation of a September interest rate cut, but there is still uncertainty in the macro - situation. The domestic copper fundamentals are in a loose state, but the low inventory limits the downside. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with attention on the support at 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply reduction expectation has not affected the actual production yet. The market sentiment is cooling. If the supply reduction news is false, the market may weaken further, but the optimistic downstream production plan provides some support [8]. - Crude Oil: Entering the seasonal travel peak, the US crude oil inventory is low, but there are concerns about supply and demand. With the OPEC+ plan to increase production in September and concerns about the US economy, the oil price is expected to oscillate [10]. - Asphalt: The supply is expected to decrease in August. The开工 rate is low, and the inventory is at a low level. With the weakening cost support and the influence of policies, the asphalt price is expected to oscillate in the near term [11][12]. - PP: The downstream and enterprise开工 rates are at a low level. There are issues with exports and supply. With the falling oil price and high inventory, and the lack of actual policies, the PP price is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - Plastic: The开工 rate is at a neutral level, but the downstream demand is still weak. With the falling oil price, high inventory, and lack of actual policies, the plastic price is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - PVC: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. With the new production capacity and the slow improvement of the real - estate market, the PVC price is expected to decline slightly in the near term, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - Coking Coal: The price rose sharply today. Although the fundamentals have no obvious changes, the market sentiment is strong. It is expected to correct after the sentiment cools down, but the downside space is limited [18]. - Urea: The price rose today. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is improving. The market is expected to return to fundamentals and oscillate, and the short - term rise can be treated as a rebound [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Overview - Price Changes: As of August 5th, coal rose nearly 7%, polysilicon rose nearly 4%, and some other commodities also had varying degrees of increase. Lithium carbonate fell more than 2%, and some other commodities declined. In the stock index futures, all major contracts rose, and in the bond futures, most contracts also showed an upward trend [4]. - Fund Flows: As of 15:19 on August 5th, coal 2601, palm oil 2509, and polysilicon 2511 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, soda ash 2509, and soybean meal 2509 had capital outflows [4]. Core Views on Specific Commodities - Copper: The US non - farm payroll data increased the probability of a September interest rate cut. The domestic copper production increased in July, and the inventory is low. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price is under pressure. The supply reduction expectation has not affected the actual production, and the market sentiment is cooling [8]. - Crude Oil: Entering the seasonal peak, there are concerns about supply and demand. With the OPEC+ plan to increase production in September and concerns about the US economy, the price is expected to oscillate [10]. - Asphalt: The supply is expected to decrease in August. The开工 rate is low, and the inventory is at a low level. The cost support is weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate [11][12]. - PP: The downstream and enterprise开工 rates are at a low level. There are issues with exports and supply. The price is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - Plastic: The开工 rate is at a neutral level, but the downstream demand is still weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - PVC: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to decline slightly, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - Coking Coal: The price rose sharply. The fundamentals have no obvious changes, but the market sentiment is strong. It is expected to correct after the sentiment cools down, with limited downside space [18]. - Urea: The price rose. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is improving. The market is expected to return to fundamentals and oscillate [19].