冠通研究：沥青：低开震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The supply side shows a recovery in the start - up rate but still at a relatively low level in recent years. Demand is restricted by factors such as funds, rainfall, and high temperatures. Cost support has weakened, and policies are more favorable for the far - month outlook with limited impact on the near - month [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt start - up rate rose 4.3 percentage points to 33.1% week - on - week, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In August, the domestic asphalt planned production is 241.3 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. Some refineries will switch production or have intermittent shutdowns this week [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. The road asphalt start - up rate remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years due to funds, rainfall, and high temperatures. Some areas' rainfall will still affect the rigid demand for asphalt [1]. - Cost: The U.S. allowing Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela may narrow the discount for China's asphalt raw material purchases. Recent crude oil prices have fallen after rising, weakening the cost support for asphalt [1]. - Policy: The new round of ten key industries' stable growth work plan will be released soon, which is more beneficial for the far - month outlook with limited impact on the near - month [1]. - Market outlook: It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate in the near term [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2510 contract fell 1.68% to 3520 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3501 yuan/ton, the highest was 3538 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 3838 to 208129 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3780 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 10 contract rose to 260 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The asphalt start - up rate rose 4.3 percentage points to 33.1% week - on - week, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Investment data: From January to June, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.9% year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was 0.6%, and that of infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) was 4.6% [4]. - Downstream start - up rate: As of the week of August 1, the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends, with the road asphalt start - up rate remaining flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Fiscal policy: The government will implement a more proactive fiscal policy. In June 2025, the growth rate of social financing stock increased to 8.9%, and the new social financing was 4.20 trillion yuan [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of August 1, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.5% week - on - week, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5].