铜策略：宏观博弈，铜震荡运行

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro Game, Copper Oscillates" and was produced on August 5, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The US non - farm payroll data increases the expectation of a September interest rate cut, but there is still uncertainty in the macro game. The fundamental situation is still in a loose logic, but the low domestic inventory limits the downside space. The copper market is oscillating strongly with small recent fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the support at 78,000 yuan/ton [1] Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The US July non - farm employment only added 73,000, with the June data significantly revised down to 14,000, and a cumulative downward revision of 258,000 in the past two months. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September soared from 37.7% to 90%, strengthening the expectation of two rate cuts within the year, yet there are still differences in the market regarding rate cuts, and the US dollar index mainly oscillates [1] - In terms of the domestic fundamentals, the SMM China electrolytic copper output in July increased by 39,400 tons month - on - month and 14.21% year - on - year. The TC/RC fees are still negative but have stopped falling and rebounded. Three smelters have maintenance plans in the third quarter, and currently, smelters can still make up for losses with by - products such as sulfuric acid. Demand is weak in the off - season, and market trading sentiment is tepid. The subsequent tariff on copper semi - finished products may affect export demand. The SHFE inventory is still at a low level and has not significantly accumulated, supporting the price [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened high, then went low and then high, oscillating strongly, closing at 78,580 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3,007 to 102,914 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2,487 to 106,736 lots [4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 120 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 55 yuan/ton. On August 4, 2025, the LME official price was $9,685/ton, and the spot premium was - $62.5/ton [4] Supply Side - As of August 4, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $41.99/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.19 cents/pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 18,767 tons, a decrease of 1,581 tons from the previous period. As of August 4, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 153,850 tons, a slight increase of 14,275 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory remained unchanged at 261,180 short tons [8]