国泰上证10年期国债ETF投资价值分析：察势，趋势，驭势

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond bull market is not over yet as the economic recovery pace is slowing down, inflation has limited upward elasticity, and the growth of social financing is weakening in the second half of 2025 [1][15]. - In the context of a long - term low - interest - rate environment and low credit spreads in China, the duration strategy becomes crucial in bond investment, and 10 - year treasury bonds are a relatively balanced choice [2]. - It is advisable to invest in long - duration treasury bond ETFs. Bond - type passive products are in the fast lane of development, and the 10 - year treasury bond ETF is a powerful tool for investors [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Observing the Situation: Economic Recovery Pace Slows Down, Bond Bull Market Continues - 2025 H1 Bond Market Performance: The bond market first declined and then rose, with the turning point in March. From the beginning of the year to mid - March, it adjusted significantly due to exchange - rate stabilization and tight funds. In late March, it recovered due to tariff frictions. In April and May, it was affected by the central bank's double cuts and the Geneva talks, showing an overall oscillatory upward trend. In June, it oscillated downward and strengthened slightly with the central bank's signal of liquidity support [1][12][13]. - 2025 H2 Economic Outlook: The economic recovery slope is likely to slow down, mainly because the "export rush" in H1 may lead to an overdraft effect on H2 exports, consumption may lose policy support, and the real - estate investment has not shown significant improvement. Prices are at the bottom with limited upward elasticity, and the social financing stock growth rate is likely to decline in Q3 and Q4 [15][21][22]. 2. Trend: Low - Interest - Rate Environment, Duration is King - Long - Term Low - Interest - Rate Environment: China's economic transformation and demographic changes are likely to lead to a long - term low - interest - rate environment. The decline in the traditional economic driving forces and the imbalance between capital supply and demand caused by population aging are the main reasons [28]. - Importance of Duration Strategy: In a low - interest - rate environment, adding long - duration bonds is the core to obtain term premiums. Compared with short - term and ultra - long - term treasury bonds, 10 - year treasury bonds have relatively balanced performance in terms of return and risk. Among different bond types, treasury bonds have advantages in terms of tax and liquidity [2][31][40]. 3. Seizing the Opportunity: Allocating Long - Duration Treasury Bond ETFs - Development of Bond ETFs: The performance gap between active and passive bond products is narrowing, and the bond - type passive products are in a golden development period. The scale of bond ETFs has reached new highs this year. Compared with overseas markets, domestic bond ETFs have broad development space [3][44][45]. - Advantages of Bond ETFs: Bond ETFs have lower fees, higher transparency, and more flexible trading mechanisms. They support T + 0 trading, can be leveraged through pledge, and have lower management and custody fees [3][50]. - 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF: It is the only 10 - year treasury bond ETF in the domestic market, providing a powerful tool for investors to invest in 10 - year treasury bonds. Managed by Wang Yu and Wang Zhenyang, it has excellent historical performance and good liquidity [3][57][60]. - Cathay Fund: As an ETF pioneer, Cathay Fund has a rich variety of ETF products, covering different asset classes. As of July 18, 2025, it has 69 ETFs with a total scale of 186.626 billion yuan, providing investors with a wide range of choices [66].