资产配置日报：股债商齐涨-20250805

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3617.60, up by 34.29 points or 0.96%[2] - The CSI 300 Index rose by 32.75 points, reflecting an increase of 0.80% to close at 4103.45[2] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 3.78 points, marking a rise of 0.82%[2] Stock Market Trends - The stock market continues its upward trend with significant capital rotation, particularly in dividend and small-cap stocks[3] - The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index saw modest gains of 0.40% and 0.39%, respectively, indicating a slight cooling in the innovation sector[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index extended its rebound, rising by 0.73% on the day[3] Bond Market Insights - Long-term bond yields showed a downward trend, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields decreasing by 0.40 basis points and 0.05 basis points to 1.70% and 1.92%, respectively[3] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repo of 160.7 billion yuan, net draining 288.5 billion yuan from the market, yet funding rates remained stable[6][7] Commodity Market Highlights - Coking coal futures surged, with the main contract rising by 6.9%, driven by renewed trading enthusiasm in the "anti-involution" theme[4] - The prices of polysilicon and coke also saw significant increases of 3.9% and 3.2%, respectively[4] - The new coal mine safety regulations are expected to restrict non-compliant production capacity, further supporting coal prices[4] Future Outlook - The market is entering a new phase driven by spot fundamentals and specific industrial policies, with "anti-involution" remaining a key theme[6] - The bond market is anticipated to experience a peak in early August, as previous negative sentiments have largely been absorbed[8] - The stock market's recent performance suggests a potential "tail-end" rally, but caution is advised due to underlying uncertainties[9][10]