Guoxin Securities·2025-08-05 14:27Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [4][8]. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural chemical industry is experiencing upward price trends in potassium and glyphosate, with an expanding price gap for phosphate exports [1][3]. - The supply-demand balance for potassium fertilizer is tight, with international prices continuing to rise, while domestic production is expected to decrease slightly in 2024 [1][23]. - The phosphate chemical sector is expected to maintain a high price level due to the scarcity of resources and increasing demand from new applications such as lithium iron phosphate [2][46]. - The pesticide sector is anticipated to see a recovery as the "rectification and reform" initiative progresses, with demand increasing due to rising agricultural planting areas in South America [3][4]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with China being the largest consumer and an import dependency exceeding 60% [1][23]. - Domestic potassium chloride production is projected to be 5.5 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, while imports are expected to reach a record high of 12.633 million tons, up 9.1% [1][23]. - The average price of potassium chloride in July rose from 3,239 CNY/ton to 3,399 CNY/ton, stabilizing at 3,230 CNY/ton by the end of the month [1][40]. Phosphate Chemicals - The long-term price center for phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, with the market price for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining above 900 CNY/ton for over two years [2][46]. - As of July 31, 2025, the price for 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei was 1,040 CNY/ton, while in Yunnan it was 970 CNY/ton, both stable compared to the previous month [2][46]. - The price gap between domestic and international phosphate fertilizers has widened, benefiting companies with export quotas [3][46]. Pesticides - The pesticide sector is entering a recovery phase, with demand driven by increased agricultural planting areas in South America [3][4]. - The pesticide price index has seen a significant decline over the past three years, but demand is expected to strengthen as inventory levels are replenished [3][4]. - Key companies in the pesticide sector include Yangnong Chemical and Lier Chemical, which are recommended for investment [4][8].