策略日报：沪指重返3600-20250805

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3600, led by the military and robotics sectors. The total market turnover reached 1.61 trillion, an increase from the previous trading day, with all 31 Shenwan first-level industries rising and nearly 3700 stocks gaining [2][21] - Current market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations for the index to continue rising until it surpasses the high point from October 8 of the previous year. Short-term support for the index is strong around 3420 points, which can be used as a reference for market strength [2][21] - The long-term upward trend is supported by recent policy shifts indicating a focus on fiscal spending directed towards households, such as the introduction of birth subsidies, which, while still less than those in developed countries, signal a shift in policy direction [2][21] Group 2: U.S. Market Insights - The U.S. stock market indices rebounded strongly, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.34%, the Nasdaq by 1.95%, and the S&P 500 by 1.47%. Market expectations are leaning towards a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with strong buying interest driving the indices back into an upward trend [3][26] - The trade war has resulted in increased tariff revenues for the U.S., and the healthy state of household balance sheets allows consumers to manage the impact of moderate tariffs. In contrast, non-U.S. economies face risks due to previous currency appreciation affecting export revenues [3][26] Group 3: Policy and Industry Developments - The China Passenger Car Association has raised its forecast for 2025 passenger car retail sales growth to 6%, predicting total retail sales of 24.35 million vehicles and exports of 5.46 million vehicles, reflecting a 14% increase [40] - The Chinese government is enhancing support for emerging industries and digital infrastructure, including 5G and industrial internet, to prevent "involution" competition and promote high-quality development [40] - The European Union has not yet reached a consensus with the U.S. on a trade agreement, while Japan's government advisory group has recommended a significant increase in the minimum wage, marking the largest increase since 1978 [40]