2025年8月可转债市场展望：从仓位走向结构

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, the convertible bond market continued its upward trend, with the equal - weighted index significantly outperforming the weighted index. The median convertible bond price reached a maximum of 129 yuan, approaching the level at the beginning of 2022, but the structure showed that low - priced bonds were significantly higher than those at the beginning of 2022, while high - priced bonds were significantly lower [2][9]. - The July market was a "second - derivative" fluctuation, while the equity "first - derivative" remained positive. Before the September 3 parade, A - shares may have opportunities, and the dumbbell strategy (high - dividend + micro - cap stocks) may rebound. The convertible bond market will continue to follow the underlying stocks and remain strong [2]. - The new VAT policy on the interest income of bonds such as treasury bonds may increase the cost - effectiveness of stable and low - volatility convertible bonds, and the buying volume of bond - type convertible bonds and the entire convertible bond market may increase [2]. - After short - term winning - rate volatility pricing, the market will shift to odds - based advantages. It is recommended to pay attention to the cost - effectiveness improvement of bank convertible bonds and high - elasticity varieties, and the future will shift from position - based victory to structure - based victory [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Convertible Bond Market in July: Recovery under Strong Equity - Price and Index Performance: The convertible bond market continued to rise in July, with a steeper upward slope compared to June. The equal - weighted index significantly outperformed the weighted index, and there was a slight pullback at the end of the month. The median convertible bond price reached a maximum of 129 yuan and closed at around 127 yuan at the end of the month [2][9]. - Style and Sector Performance: In July, small - cap and low - rating styles were dominant again, and their excess performance since the beginning of the year reached a new high. The pharmaceutical sector led the rise, while the financial sector significantly underperformed other sectors since 2025 [10][12][15]. - Comparison with Underlying Stocks: Convertible bonds slightly underperformed the underlying stocks, but the underperformance margin further narrowed compared to June. The convertible bond market showed strong performance overall, and its valuation advantage was significant [16][21]. - Valuation Situation: The convertible bond valuation confirmed an upward trend, with the 100 - yuan premium rate rising to a maximum of 33% in July. The current high - valuation problem is mainly reflected in the low - parity area, while the 120 - 130 yuan parity is still a valuation depression [22][24][27]. 2. Outlook for the Convertible Bond Market in August: Shifting from Position - Based Victory to Structure - Based Comparison - Equity Market and Convertible Bond Market: The short - term adjustment of the equity market is due to the full implementation of the market rotation and catch - up market, and the market has returned to a volatile state. Before the September 3 parade, A - shares may have opportunities, and the convertible bond market will follow the underlying stocks and remain strong [2][46]. - Valuation of Convertible Bonds: The high valuation of convertible bonds may be maintained because the overall risk of the stock market is controllable. However, the absolute valuation of bond - type convertible bonds is relatively high, and there are potential adjustment risks. After the short - term adjustment, they have certain cost - effectiveness [48][53][60]. - Impact of VAT Policy: The adjustment of the bond VAT policy may increase the attractiveness of bond - type convertible bonds. After the tax increase, the cost - effectiveness of pure bonds decreases, and the buying volume of bond - type convertible bonds may increase [63][66]. - Cost - Effectiveness of Different Types of Convertible Bonds: The cost - effectiveness of high - dividend and low - volatility convertible bonds such as bank convertible bonds may increase, and attention should also be paid to high - elasticity varieties and individual bonds with odds advantages [4]. 3. Bond Selection Directions and Targets in August - Bond Selection Directions: First, pay attention to the directions favored by the high - to - low shift in the August market, such as bank convertible bonds and some "bank - like" convertible bonds; second, focus on small - cap growth sectors such as self - controllability and national defense and military industries; third, pay attention to convertible bonds that are not subject to forced redemption or have been listed for less than 6 months; fourth, pay attention to convertible bonds that can replace underlying stocks [4]. - Targets in August: Low - volatility convertible bonds include Lvdong Convertible Bond, Hengyi Convertible Bond 2, etc.; stable convertible bonds include Bo 25 Convertible Bond, Guanghe Convertible Bond, etc.; high - volatility convertible bonds include Daotong Convertible Bond, Jiahe Convertible Bond, etc. [4]