中观景气8月第2期：周期品价格分化，电影景气显著改善

Group 1 - The report highlights a divergence in cyclical commodity prices, with steel, cement, and industrial metal prices declining, while float glass and thermal coal prices continue to rise. The film market shows significant improvement due to new releases during the summer season [2][13][31]. - The construction demand remains weak, leading to a decrease in steel prices and continued pressure on cement prices. However, float glass prices have seen an increase [5][15][42]. - The automotive and chemical industries are experiencing a seasonal slowdown in operating rates, while the oil asphalt sector shows a contrary increase, indicating resilience in infrastructure demand [2][5][15]. Group 2 - Real estate sales are still struggling, with a year-on-year decline of 20.8% in transaction area across 30 major cities. The decline is more pronounced in third-tier cities, with a drop of 37.0% [5][18]. - The average daily retail of passenger cars increased by 5.0% year-on-year, supported by the release of the third batch of national subsidies. However, dealer inventory pressure has slightly increased, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth [5][21]. - The film box office revenue saw a significant increase of 49.0% week-on-week and a year-on-year growth of 64.8%, driven by the release of popular new films during the summer [5][31]. Group 3 - In the manufacturing sector, there is a seasonal slowdown in operating rates, particularly in the automotive and chemical industries, while oil asphalt production has increased, reflecting ongoing infrastructure demand [15][48]. - The prices of industrial metals have declined due to weak demand and the impact of tariffs on copper, with copper and aluminum prices dropping by 1.1% and 0.4% respectively [57][58]. - Long-distance passenger transport demand continues to grow, while export logistics show signs of decline, with highway freight traffic down by 0.9% and railway freight volume down by 1.4% [66][70].