Changjiu Logistics(SH:603569) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-05 14:58Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The logistics industry is transitioning from price competition to high-quality development under the "anti-involution" backdrop, with regulatory policies accelerating industry consolidation and compliant companies gaining market share and pricing power [6][41]. - The company is a leading national automotive logistics service provider, covering a full-service system including complete vehicle transportation, international logistics, and new energy services, which is expected to provide stable revenue and profit growth [6][27]. - The report highlights the significant potential for profit improvement due to the depreciation of previously purchased vehicles and the scarcity of compliant transport capacity, which is expected to enhance the profitability of the company's self-owned transport vehicles [6][42]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 4,175 in 2024 to 6,587 in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.3% [2]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 80 million yuan in 2024 to 153 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 10.8% in 2025 and 18.1% in 2027 [2]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.13 yuan in 2024 to 0.25 yuan in 2027 [2]. Business Segments - Complete Vehicle Transportation: The company anticipates stable growth in revenue from complete vehicle logistics, driven by steady growth in China's automotive production and sales [8]. - International Logistics: The international logistics segment is expected to grow significantly, with revenues projected to reach 27.70 billion yuan by 2027, driven by strong demand for automotive exports, particularly in new energy vehicles [8]. - New Energy Business: The new energy segment is projected to see substantial growth, with revenues expected to increase from 2.76 billion yuan in 2025 to 7.95 billion yuan in 2027, benefiting from policy support for new energy storage development [8]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has established a robust market position with a large fleet and extensive transportation network, which is expected to provide a competitive edge in the logistics industry [6][53]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategic partnerships and collaborations, particularly in international logistics, which enhance its service capabilities and market reach [6][70]. Valuation - The report uses a price-to-sales (P/S) valuation approach, comparing the company to U.S. peers in the ground freight industry, indicating that the company's P/S ratio is currently lower than its comparables, justifying the "Buy" rating [7][8].