高盛：欧洲资本支出复苏研究透视

Investment Rating - The report indicates a selective recovery in capital expenditures in Europe expected after 2026, driven by energy transition, security demands, and government support [1][2][4]. Core Insights - European capital expenditures as a percentage of sales reached a historical low in 2023, but are projected to rebound selectively post-2026 due to structural factors and government incentives [1][2][4]. - Global capital expenditure growth is expected to be slightly below 5% in 2025, up from 4% in 2024, with large project orders being delayed rather than canceled [1][6]. - Key growth areas identified include data centers, utilities, and defense sectors, driven by electrification, artificial intelligence, and government support [1][7][21]. Summary by Sections Current Investment Trends - European companies have historically focused on shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, resulting in lower capital expenditures [2]. - Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, there is renewed investment demand in capital-intensive industries driven by themes such as energy transition and digitalization [3][4]. Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly data centers and semiconductors, has maintained stable growth of over 15% in the past two years [8]. - Utilities, especially in the power grid sector, have shown mid to high single-digit growth, while mining capital expenditures are projected to grow at 7% [8][18]. Future Opportunities - Significant growth is anticipated in data centers, utilities, and defense sectors, with specific investment baskets available for targeted exposure [7][28][32]. - Companies like Schneider and Legrand are highlighted as key players in the data center market, while Atlas Copco is noted for its strong growth potential in the semiconductor sector [17][26]. Challenges and Market Dynamics - Traditional heavy industries and consumer-related sectors are experiencing weaker performance, with food and beverage industries showing below-average prospects [9]. - Tariff issues have impacted large project investment decisions, but resolving these could lead to a resurgence in capital expenditures in 2026 [13][34]. Investment Baskets and Strategies - Various investment baskets are recommended for capital expenditure beneficiaries, including those focused on defense, AI infrastructure, and broader capital spending themes [30][31][32]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on thematic trends rather than individual company performance in the current economic environment [27].