格林大华期货早盘提示-20250806

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The methanol price will oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 2360 - 2450 yuan/ton. Traders are advised to wait and see or make short - term long positions. The 8 - month methanol downstream is in the seasonal off - season, last week the ports saw inventory accumulation while the inland areas had inventory reduction, and the import volume is expected to increase significantly in July. The improved inland auction transactions and olefin external procurement provide support, along with coal cost support [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday night, the futures price of the methanol main contract rose 11 yuan/ton to 2392 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the mainstream East China region rose 5 yuan/ton to 2373 yuan/ton. The long - position decreased by 7677 lots to 274,200 lots, and the short - position decreased by 7665 lots to 341,300 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 85.36%, a month - on - month increase of 1.64%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 72.45%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 808,400 tons, an increase of 82,600 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 25,000 tons, and that in South China increased by 57,600 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 324,500 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.51% [2] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 36,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7500 tons. The orders to be shipped of sample enterprises are 230,700 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.76%. The olefin operating rate is 86.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.14%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 81.42%, a month - on - month increase of 5.63%; the acetic acid operating rate is 91.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 43.29%, a month - on - month increase of 5.55%; the MTBE operating rate is 67.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22% [2] - Policy: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. The specific work plans will be released soon [2] Market Logic - In August, the methanol downstream is in the seasonal off - season. Last week, ports saw inventory accumulation while inland areas had inventory reduction. In July, the import volume is expected to increase significantly. The improved inland auction transactions and olefin external procurement provide support, along with coal cost support, so the short - term methanol price will oscillate [2] Trading Strategy - Wait and see or make short - term long positions [2]