中原期货晨会纪要-20250806

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the futures market, some commodities are experiencing price fluctuations, and the market sentiment is affected by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international economic data [4][6][7]. - In the A - share market, the index is on a stable upward trend, and the market's attractiveness is increasing. However, further upward breakthrough may require new catalysts [17]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Chemical and Agricultural Futures Market - Chemical Futures: On August 6, 2025, in the chemical futures market, natural rubber and soda ash had significant price increases, with natural rubber rising 6.291% to 15,460.00 and soda ash rising 6.137% to 1,349.00. While crude oil, asphalt, and other varieties declined, with crude oil dropping 1.238% to 502.50 [4]. - Agricultural Futures: Among agricultural futures, rapeseed meal and yellow corn had price increases, with rapeseed meal rising 0.844% to 2,747.00 and yellow corn rising 0.445% to 2,259.00. Palm oil and other varieties declined, with palm oil dropping 0.750% to 8,996.00 [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - Domestic Policies: The State Council has introduced a series of policies, including gradually promoting free pre - school education, implementing personal and service industry loan interest - subsidy policies, and the China Real Estate Association providing services for small and medium - sized real estate enterprises. Seven departments including the central bank have jointly issued a guidance on financial support for new - type industrialization [6][7]. - International News: The US trade deficit in June decreased significantly, and the ISM non - manufacturing index in July declined. Trump criticized Powell, planned to raise tariffs on India, and may announce drug and chip tariffs. The US may ban banks from terminating customer services due to political stances or cryptocurrency business [6][7][8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views - Agricultural Products: The peanut market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to be strongly volatile but still on a downward trend. The oil market lacks driving forces and is expected to be weakly volatile. The sugar market is under supply pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see. The corn market is bearish in the short term. The pig market is expected to fluctuate within a range. The egg market suggests short - selling. The cotton market is weakly volatile [10][11]. - Energy and Chemicals: The urea price is rising, and it is necessary to pay attention to export and coal price changes. The caustic soda price is expected to be weakly adjusted. The coking coal and coke prices are strongly volatile. [11][12] - Industrial Metals: The copper price is under pressure, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to adjust at a high level. The alumina price is adjusting at a high level. The steel price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term and has upward momentum in the medium term. The ferroalloy market is affected by the overall commodity atmosphere, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. The lithium carbonate price is under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [12][13][14]. - Options and Finance: The A - share market rose on August 5, 2025. The index is on a stable upward trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC. For options, trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell wide - straddles to short - sell volatility [15][17].