工业硅、多晶硅日评：或有回调-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures and spot prices have resonated and rebounded, but considering the cooling of sentiment and the hedging pressure above the market, the market may adjust, yet the bullish sentiment may still fluctuate, so operations need to be cautious. The continuous production resumption dynamics of silicon enterprises should be followed up [1]. - The polysilicon market has shown continuous upward movement driven by supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases. Although the sentiment has weakened recently, it still fluctuates, and the market is volatile, so operations need to be cautious. The evolution of macro - sentiment and the registration of warehouse receipts should be continuously monitored [1]. Summary by Related Content Price Changes - The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) decreased by 2.15% to 9,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) decreased by 2.02% to 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 1.08% to 8,450 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 46 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 47 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material remained flat at 45 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 44.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract increased by 3.30% to 50,330 yuan/ton [1]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and organic silicon products remained unchanged [1]. Industry News - On July 22, 2025, the European Commission launched a second anti - dumping and counter -vailing sunset review investigation on solar glass originating from China [1]. - On July 29, Hebei Haopan Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. won the bid for the photovoltaic module procurement project of several photovoltaic power stations in Hebei [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Industrial Silicon - Supply: As the silicon price rises, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise operation. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, with some silicon material plants planning to resume production in July, bringing some demand increments. An organic silicon plant has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, and the price has continued to rise. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Polysilicon - Supply: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly, with the July output approaching 110,000 tons [1]. - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon materials. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the prices of downstream silicon wafers have followed suit, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the terminal market is still weak due to the large - scale pre - installation in the first half of the year [1].