研究所晨会观点精萃-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: US President warns of tariff hikes on India and the EU; US non - manufacturing PMI drops from 50.8 in June to 50.1 in July, below the expected 51.5, weakening the US dollar index and cooling global risk appetite. Domestic: China's manufacturing PMI in July is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Policies like childcare subsidies may boost consumption, and a 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff truce reduces short - term tariff uncertainties. Domestic risk appetite rises due to Fed rate - cut expectations and RMB appreciation [2]. - Asset recommendations: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at short - term highs, with cautious short - term long positions. Bonds may oscillate and correct at short - term highs, suggesting cautious observation. For commodities, black metals may see increased short - term volatility, with cautious short - term long positions; non - ferrous metals may oscillate in the short term, suggesting cautious observation; energy and chemicals may oscillate, with cautious observation; precious metals may oscillate at short - term highs, with cautious long positions [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas: US non - manufacturing PMI decline and tariff hike warnings cool global risk appetite. Domestic: China's manufacturing PMI decline shows economic slowdown, but policies and tariff truce extension increase domestic risk appetite [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks may oscillate strongly at short - term highs, bonds may oscillate and correct, black metals may have increased volatility, non - ferrous metals may oscillate, energy and chemicals may oscillate, and precious metals may oscillate at short - term highs [2]. Stocks - Driven by sectors like communication, banking, insurance, and home appliances, the domestic stock market rises. China's July manufacturing PMI decline indicates economic slowdown, but policies and tariff truce extension increase risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive strengthens. Focus on Sino - US trade talks and domestic policies. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Tuesday sees a divergence in precious metals. The sharp drop in US non - farm payrolls data increases the Fed's rate - cut probability, and the rebound of core PCE inflation in June makes the stagflation feature of the US economy more obvious. The US dollar index weakens, and the stock market falls. Precious metals are expected to remain strong in the short term, with attention to inflation and employment data [4]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: Tuesday sees a rebound in the steel spot and futures markets, driven by coal safety supervision. Real - world demand is weak, with an increase in steel inventory and a decrease in apparent consumption. Supply may be restricted by phased production cuts. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - Iron ore: Tuesday sees a slight rebound in iron ore prices, driven by the overall rebound of the ferrous sector. Iron - water production is at a high level but has declined for two consecutive weeks and may continue to fall. Supply shows a decrease in global shipments but an increase in arrivals. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. - Glass: Tuesday sees the glass futures contract oscillating. Supply shows a slight increase in daily melting volume and capacity utilization, but there are expectations of production cuts due to anti - involution policies. Demand from the real - estate sector is weak, but there is a slight improvement. Glass prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - Silicon manganese/silicon iron: Tuesday sees a rebound in the prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese, driven by the expected contraction of coal supply. The prices of manganese ore are loosening, and the cost support is strong. The production of silicon iron is increasing, and the market sentiment is positive. Iron alloy prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - Soda ash: Tuesday sees the soda ash futures contract oscillating. Supply is in an over - supply pattern despite a recent decline in production. Demand is weak, and there are concerns about capacity exit, which support the bottom price. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - Copper: The Fed's rate - cut expectations are rising. Although the EU and the US are close to a trade agreement, Comex copper inventories are at a multi - year high, which may affect future imports. Copper prices have fallen [9]. - Aluminum: Tuesday sees an increase in aluminum prices due to a positive commodity market. However, the fundamentals are weakening, with an increase in domestic and LME inventories. The impact of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policy is limited. Short - term sentiment may fluctuate [9]. - Aluminum alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, increasing production costs and leading to losses for some recycling plants. Demand is weak in the off - season. Aluminum alloy prices may oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited [9]. - Tin: The combined operating rate of tin mines in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased significantly. The supply of tin ore is expected to ease, but demand is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. Tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9]. - Lithium carbonate: Tuesday sees a 2.39% decline in the lithium carbonate futures contract. The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate are falling. Market concerns about mine closures may cause short - term volatility. Cautious observation is recommended [9]. - Industrial silicon: Tuesday sees a 1.37% increase in the industrial silicon futures contract. Production is increasing slightly. The rise of coking coal prices may drive industrial silicon prices. Industrial silicon prices may oscillate strongly in the short term [10]. - Polysilicon: Tuesday sees a 3.88% increase in the polysilicon futures contract. The prices of related products are stable. The increase in warehouse receipts reflects the willingness of enterprises for hedging and delivery. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [11]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Russia may consider a cease - fire to avoid secondary sanctions. Trump's threat to blacklist Russia's "shadow fleet" and tariff hikes on India increase oil price volatility. Oil prices are expected to oscillate widely [12]. - Asphalt: Asphalt prices are weakening due to the dissipation of anti - involution sentiment. Factory inventories are slightly decreasing, but demand is weak. Asphalt prices will continue to oscillate weakly [12]. - PX: PTA plant overhauls reduce PX demand. The supply - demand pattern is still tight, but the PXN spread has declined. PX prices will oscillate [12]. - PTA: PTA prices fall to around 4600. Processing fees are low, and large - scale plant overhauls offset new production capacity. Downstream demand is weak, and PTA prices will oscillate weakly [13]. - Ethylene glycol: Port inventories are slightly decreasing, but supply pressure will increase as gas - based plants return. Downstream demand is weak, and ethylene glycol prices will oscillate [14]. - Short - fiber: Driven by the weakening of the sector, short - fiber prices fall. Terminal orders are average, and inventories are accumulating. Short - fiber prices may continue to be shorted in the medium term [14]. - Methanol: The "anti - involution" sentiment cools, and industrial products correct. Although coal prices support methanol, supply - demand pressure exists. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - PP: The "anti - involution" sentiment cools, and prices return to fundamentals. Crude oil prices support PP, but supply is strong and demand is weak. PP prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14]. - LLDPE: The emotional premium fades. Supply increases as plants restart, and demand is weak. Low inventories and high crude oil prices support LLDPE. LLDPE prices are expected to oscillate weakly [15]. Agricultural Products - US soybeans: The overnight CBOT November soybean contract closes down 0.40%. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 69%, and attention should be paid to the extreme high - temperature risk in the Midwest later this week [16]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal: High arrivals and high operation rates of domestic oil mills slow down the inventory - building of soybean meal. Trade basis quotes decline, but actual sales are average [16]. - Soybean and rapeseed oil: The fast pace of soybean purchases for the fourth quarter in China increases the low - valuation buying of soybean meal and soybean oil. The inverted soybean - palm oil spread makes soybean oil more cost - effective. Consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on soybean oil and short on palm oil. Rapeseed oil has high port inventories and slow circulation [17]. - Palm oil: Since July, palm oil production and inventory pressure in the producing areas are high, and exports are weak. The market expects an increase in inventory in the August MPOB report. Palm oil's recent rebound is driven by funds and technology, but its sustainability is questionable [18]. - Corn: Corn prices in the national market fall, and spot trading is light. The supply - demand balance of corn in August is weak. Attention should be paid to the new - season corn market [18]. - Pigs: Farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices increases the difficulty of procurement for slaughterhouses. However, the off - season demand is weak, and there may be pressure on pig prices due to increased supply [18].