宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - Gold is expected to be short - term bullish, mid - term range - bound, and intraday slightly bullish, with a short - term bullish outlook due to the cooling of tariff disturbances in August, the disappointing July non - farm payrolls at the beginning of the month, and the previous unexpected rebound in inflation, which have increased the expectation of a US economic recession and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and weakened the US dollar index [1][3]. - Copper is expected to be short - term and mid - term range - bound, and intraday slightly bullish, with a wait - and - see attitude. The domestic long - buying sentiment has cooled, and factors such as the off - season of downstream industries, high production of upstream electrolytic copper, and a slight increase in social inventories have put pressure on copper prices [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Time - frame Views: Short - term: rising; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Overall view: short - term bullish [1]. - Core Logic: In the context of reduced tariff disturbances in August, the disappointing July non - farm payrolls at the beginning of the month and the previous unexpected rebound in inflation have increased the expectation of a US economic recession, leading to a rapid rebound in gold prices. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may rise with the weakening economic expectation, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is beneficial to gold prices. Technically, gold prices are still in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and attention can be paid to the technical pressure at the upper edge of the range [3]. Copper - Time - frame Views: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: slightly bullish; Overall view: wait - and - see [1]. - Core Logic: On Tuesday, the domestic market atmosphere was good, and the non - ferrous metal sector oscillated upward, causing copper prices to rebound. After the Asian session, LME copper continued to plunge, and SHFE copper opened lower at night and oscillated narrowly around the 78,000 - yuan mark. The decline in SHFE copper's open interest to 470,000 contracts indicates a decrease in capital attention. The domestic downstream industries are in the off - season, upstream electrolytic copper production remains high, and social inventories have increased slightly. Technically, attention can be paid to the technical support at the 78,000 - yuan mark [5].