Report Overview - The report is the daily journal of Goldtrust Futures, dated August 6, 2025, and written by the Goldtrust Futures Research Institute [1] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, if the strict implementation of over - production verification in coal mines continues, and demand remains stable, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to stay strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or steel mill hot metal production peaks and declines, the price increase will face pressure. Investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics and treat it with a bullish bias in a volatile market [3] - For A - shares, with 1.96 million new accounts opened, a year - on - year increase of 70.5%, it is a positive factor. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate upwards at a high level [6] - For gold, the July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected. The probability of a September interest rate cut has increased, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will make a small - scale sideways movement in the short term [10] - For iron ore, with the improvement of steel mill profitability, hot metal production remains high, and the overall fundamental support is strong. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the black industry chain is in a healthy state, showing a resonance upward trend. Technically, after three consecutive days of rising, the strategy is to buy on dips [14][15] - For glass, the supply - demand situation has improved slightly with a significant decline in factory inventory, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driver of the recent market is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery. Technically, when it pulls back to the short - term support level, consider buying on stabilization [18][19] - For palm oil, currently in the overseas production area's peak season, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in June, and Reuters survey shows that the inventory may continue to grow in July. The production and inventory pressure in major foreign producing areas still exist, which may limit the upward momentum of the market as time goes on [20] Summary by Directory Hot Focus - Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to underground accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. For example, the resumption of production in some coal mines in Lvliang, Shanxi is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures, leading to a tightening of supply [3] - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with the comprehensive profitability rate of steel mills close to 60%. The daily average hot metal production is at a high level, which strongly supports the demand for coking coal. The replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up the price [3] - Policy: The implementation of the new version of the Mineral Resources Law, the expectation of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's anti - involution work plan, and the price increase of coke by industry associations have also driven up the coking coal price [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - New accounts opened in the A - share market reached 1.96 million, a year - on - year increase of 70.5%, which is a positive factor. The short - term operation strategy is a high - level upward fluctuation [6] Technical Analysis - Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will move sideways in the short term [10] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Fundamental: With the improvement of steel mill profitability, hot metal production remains high, and the overall fundamental support is strong. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the black industry chain is in a healthy state [14][15] - Technical: After three consecutive days of rising, the strategy is to buy on dips [14] Technical Analysis - Glass - Supply - demand: The supply - demand situation has improved slightly, with a significant decline in factory inventory, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [18][19] - Market driver: The main driver is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery. Technically, buy on stabilization when it pulls back to the short - term support level [18][19] Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - Supply: Currently in the overseas production area's peak season, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly in June, and it may continue to grow in July. The production and inventory pressure in major foreign producing areas still exist, which may limit the upward momentum of the market [20]
金信期货日刊-20250806
Jin Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-06 01:14