Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market remained weak yesterday, with the prices of finished products showing a weak and volatile trend. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the overall fundamentals are still weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. The current static fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the Politburo meeting has no new statements on real estate, so the policy direction is expected to continue the previous strict control of incremental trends. Attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side for finished product prices [3]. - The price of iron ore may fluctuate with the prices of downstream products and mainly show a volatile trend. The supply growth is limited, and the port inventory is trending downward. The demand support still exists, but the market divergence remains, and risk control is necessary [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is recommended that investment positions mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach, while hedging positions can seize opportunities according to their own situations. In the long - term, both may face the situation of weakening marginal demand [9][10]. - The price of industrial silicon may be weak in the short term, and the price of polysilicon may show a high - level volatile trend. The price increase chain of polysilicon needs to be further observed whether it can be smoothly transmitted to the downstream [14][15]. - The prices of glass and soda ash are expected to be volatile in the short term. For glass, if there are substantial real - estate policies, the futures price may continue to rise; for soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [17][18]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel - Price and Position Information: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3204 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.031%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2394 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 18,068 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3417 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.470%). The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1176 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 17,689 lots. The spot price in Shanghai increased by 20 yuan/ton, while that in Lecong remained unchanged [2]. - Market Analysis: The speculative demand for rebar decreased significantly with the price decline, leading to inventory accumulation. The demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly, the production increased rapidly, and the inventory increased slightly. The current inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at the lowest in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - Price and Position Information: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 798.50 yuan/ton, up 1.01% (+8.00). The positions decreased by 18,144 lots to 384,500 lots. The weighted positions were 945,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 30.53 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.68% [5]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation: The overseas iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month, with shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreasing. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the arrivals increased. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.52 tons to 240.71 tons. The port inventory decreased month - on - month, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Price and Position Information: On August 5, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) rose 0.77% to close at 6018 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a premium of 22 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) rose 0.74% to close at 5716 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, with a premium of 184 yuan/ton over the futures [8][9]. - Market Analysis: In the short term, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the prices may fluctuate greatly. In the long - term, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may face the situation of weakening marginal demand [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) was 8490 yuan/ton, up 1.43% (+120). The weighted positions decreased by 1174 lots to 500,807 lots. The spot prices of different grades decreased. The price may be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at 8250 yuan/ton [13]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) was 50,330 yuan/ton, up 2.76% (+1350). The weighted positions increased by 18,874 lots to 381,348 lots. The spot prices remained flat. The price may show a high - level volatile trend, and the support levels are 47,000 and 44,000 yuan/ton [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot prices in Shahe remained unchanged, while those in Central China decreased by 30 yuan. The national inventory of float glass decreased. The net short positions decreased. The price may be volatile in the short term, and in the long - term, it depends on real - estate policies and demand [17]. - Soda Ash: The spot price increased by 10 yuan. The domestic inventory increased, and the downstream demand was tepid. The production was stable, and the output is expected to increase. The price may be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [18].
黑色建材日报-20250806
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-06 01:22