Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside, and a short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given [2]. - Methanol is currently over - valued, with supply pressure increasing and demand weakening, and its price faces pressure [4]. - Urea is in a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The current price is not high, and the continued decline space is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to long - allocation opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, after a significant decline, the price rebounded. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is recommended, and a long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 band operation can be considered [9]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - For styrene, the short - term BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost to fluctuate upward [14]. - Polyethylene price will be determined by the game between cost and supply in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions [17]. - Polypropylene price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July, with cost leading the market [18]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking, and short - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil can be focused on [21]. - PTA is expected to continue accumulating inventory, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities on dips following PX [22]. - Ethylene glycol's fundamental situation will change from strong to weak, and its short - term valuation has downward pressure [23]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - Market Quotes: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.07, or 1.62%, to $65.17; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.00, or 1.46%, to $67.68; INE main crude oil futures fell 5.50 yuan, or 1.07%, to 508.8 yuan [1]. - Inventory Data: In Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 7.30 million barrels, a 6.32% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.55 million barrels to 1.89 million barrels, a 22.58% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.98 million barrels to 9.70 million barrels, an 11.24% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.86 million barrels to 18.90 million barrels, a 4.78% increase [1]. Methanol - Market Quotes: On August 5, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 2397 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 27 [4]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply - side corporate profits are still high, and the start - up rate is gradually bottoming out and rising, increasing supply pressure. Demand - side port olefins are shut down, and it is the traditional demand off - season, so the overall demand is weak. Port inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the basis and inter - month spreads are continuously declining [4]. Urea - Market Quotes: On August 5, the 09 contract rose 39 yuan/ton to 1772 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 12 [6]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply has decreased slightly but is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Corporate profits are poor, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually increase. Demand - side export docking is less than expected, domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season, and compound fertilizer production for autumn fertilizers has started, with enterprises actively building inventories and finished product inventories further increasing [6]. Rubber - Market Quotes: Industrial products rose collectively. NR and RU rebounded significantly after a decline [8]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Tire factory start - up rates decreased month - on - month. As of July 30, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up load of Shandong tire enterprises was 61.06%, down 3.94 percentage points from the previous week but up 4.63 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire start - up load was 74.63%, down 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.23 percentage points from the same period last year. As of July 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.4% increase month - on - month [9]. - Operation Suggestion: A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is recommended, and a long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 band operation can be considered [9]. PVC - Market Quotes: The PVC09 contract rose 61 yuan to 5042 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4890 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 152 (- 31) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 135 (+2) yuan/ton [11]. - Supply - Demand Situation: The overall start - up rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05% month - on - month. The demand - side overall downstream start - up rate was 42.1%, up 0.2% month - on - month. Factory inventories were 34.5 tons (1.2), and social inventories were 72.2 tons (+3.9). The enterprise's comprehensive profit has risen to a high point this year, the maintenance volume is gradually decreasing, and the production is at a five - year high. The domestic downstream start - up rate is at a five - year low, and India's anti - dumping policy has been extended [11]. Styrene - Market Quotes: Spot and futures prices both declined, and the basis weakened [13]. - Supply - Demand Situation: The cost - side support still exists, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period and has a large upward repair space. The cost - side pure benzene start - up rate has declined slightly, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the styrene start - up rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have continued to decline significantly, and the demand - side three - S overall start - up rate has fluctuated and increased during the seasonal off - season [14]. Polyethylene - Market Quotes: Futures prices rose. The main contract closed at 7323 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7240 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 83 yuan/ton, weakening 44 yuan/ton [17]. - Supply - Demand Situation: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost - side support still exists. The trade - inventory is oscillating at a high level, and the demand - side agricultural film orders are oscillating at a low level. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - led decline to high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. There is a large production capacity release pressure in August, with a planned production capacity release of 1.1 million tons [17]. Polypropylene - Market Quotes: Futures prices rose. The main contract closed at 7095 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 30 yuan/ton, weakening 21 yuan/ton [18]. - Supply - Demand Situation: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The demand - side downstream start - up rate has declined seasonally. There is only a planned production capacity release of 450,000 tons in August. In the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the cost will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [18]. PX - Market Quotes: The PX09 contract fell 20 yuan to 6734 yuan, the PX CFR rose 1 dollar to 839 dollars, and the basis was 167 yuan (+25), with the 9 - 1 spread at 28 yuan (+2) [20]. - Supply - Demand Situation: The PX load remains at a high level, and the short - term maintenance of downstream PTA has increased, with the overall load center declining, which suppresses the valuation rhythm. However, the current PTA inventory level is low, and the polyester and terminal start - up rates are about to end the off - season, so the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is still small. Recently, new PTA plants have been put into operation, and PX is expected to continue de - stocking [21]. PTA - Market Quotes: The PTA09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4682 yuan, the East China spot price fell 30 yuan to 4660 yuan, the basis was - 19 yuan (- 4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 yuan (- 6) [22]. - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply - side maintenance has increased in August, but new plants have been put into operation, and it is expected to continue accumulating inventory. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure has decreased, and downstream and terminal start - up rates are about to end the off - season. The valuation is currently at a neutral level [22]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Quotes: The EG09 contract rose 10 yuan to 4399 yuan, the East China spot price rose 8 yuan to 4463 yuan, the basis was 79 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 27 (+1) [23]. - Supply - Demand Situation: The supply - side ethylene glycol start - up rate was 68.6%, down 0.7% month - on - month. The downstream start - up rate was 88.1%, down 0.6% month - on - month. Import arrival forecasts are 138,000 tons, and port inventories decreased by 500 tons. The overseas device load is at a high level, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase, with inventories rising from a low level. The short - term valuation has downward pressure [23].
五矿期货能源化工日报-20250806
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-06 01:17