宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weakening. The steel mills' production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The positive factor is that the steel mills' profitability is fair, and the demand remains high, supporting the ore price. However, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has rebounded as expected. Even though the overseas miners' shipments have decreased again, the decline is small, and the continuation of the decline under high ore prices is questionable. The overseas ore supply is expected to increase, and the domestic ore production is weakly stable, so the overall supply will increase steadily. Currently, the ore demand has good resilience, supporting the high - level operation of the ore price, but the supply is rising, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price is expected to continue the high - level volatile consolidation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term trend is volatile, and the intraday trend is slightly stronger. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakening, and the ore price is undergoing volatile adjustment [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weakening. The steel mills' production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The steel mills' good profitability maintains high - level demand, supporting the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has rebounded, and the overseas ore supply is expected to increase. The domestic ore production is weakly stable, and the overall supply will increase steadily. The ore demand has good resilience, but the supply is rising, so the fundamentals are expected to weaken. The ore price is expected to continue the high - level volatile consolidation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2]