国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250806

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are mentioned in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend predictions and fundamental data for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The trends include oscillating repeatedly, wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance or market information disturbances, and strong - side oscillations [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - Trend: Oscillating repeatedly [2][6] - Fundamentals: The previous day's futures closing price was 798.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton with a 1.01% increase. The previous day's position decreased by 18,144 hands. Spot prices of various iron ore types increased, with the exception of domestic ores in some regions. The trend strength is 0 [5]. - News: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Trend: Wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][8][9] - Fundamentals: For rebar RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,233 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (1.38%); for hot - rolled coil HC2510, it was 3,457 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton (1.89%). Production, inventory, and apparent demand data for rebar and hot - rolled coils in the week of July 31st showed different trends. The trend strength for both is 0 [8][9][10]. - News: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined. Other news includes steel production data from key steel enterprises in mid - July and price - related regulations [10][11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Trend: Wide - range fluctuations due to market information disturbances [2][13] - Fundamentals: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. Spot prices of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased by 80 yuan/ton, while the price of manganese ore decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. The trend strength for both is 0 [13]. - News: There are price quotes for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese from different regions, steel mill procurement information, and news about electricity prices and manganese ore shipment prices [14][15][17]. Coke and Coking Coal - Trend: Strong - side oscillations [2][18] - Fundamentals: The previous day's futures prices of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 increased by 2.9% and 1.2% respectively. Spot prices of some coking coal and coke types changed. The trend strength for both is 0 [19]. - News: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined [20]. Logs - Trend: Oscillating repeatedly [2][22] - Fundamentals: Futures prices of different log contracts showed different trends in terms of closing prices, trading volumes, and positions. Spot prices of various log types remained mostly stable. The trend strength is 1 [23][25]. - News: In July, the manufacturing PMI declined [25].