国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250806

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the trends and investment suggestions for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc. It suggests trading strategies based on supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and market sentiment for each commodity [11][12]. Summary by Catalog PX, PTA, MEG - Market Overview: On August 5, Asian PX prices were range - bound, with the Platts assessment up 50 cents/ton to $838.83/ton. PTA had a 120 - million - ton device restarting and a 150 - million - ton device planned for maintenance. MEG had a 75 - million - ton/year device in Malaysia shut down, and the planned arrival at major ports from August 4 - 10 was about 138,000 tons. Polyester sales were light on August 5 [6][9]. - Trend Intensity: PX and PTA trend intensities are - 1, while MEG's is 0 [10]. - View and Suggestion: For PX, conduct a reverse spread on the monthly difference and short PXN on rallies. For PTA, conduct a positive spread on the monthly difference at low levels. For MEG, conduct a positive spread on the monthly difference at low levels, and go long on MEG and short on PTA [11][12]. Rubber - Fundamental Tracking: On August 6, the rubber futures' daily and night - session closing prices increased, but trading volume and open interest decreased. Spot prices of various rubber types rose slightly. The trend intensity is 0 [14]. - Industry News: The UK's anti - dumping and anti - subsidy measures on Chinese truck and bus tires will be extended for 5 years. Exports to the UK will remain restricted, and exports of passenger car tires are also under pressure [17][18]. Synthetic Rubber - Fundamental Tracking: On August 6, the closing price of synthetic rubber futures increased, but trading volume, open interest, and turnover decreased. The prices of raw materials and products changed slightly, and the operating rate decreased. The trend intensity is 0 [19]. - Industry News: As of July 30, 2025, the inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased. The inventory of butadiene at East China ports continued to decline. In the short - term, it is in a weak shock, and in the medium - term, it will enter a shock pattern [20][21]. Asphalt - Fundamental Tracking: On August 6, asphalt futures prices declined, trading volume and open interest of some contracts decreased, and the basis and inter - month spread changed. Spot prices in some regions decreased, the refinery operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory rate decreased slightly. The trend intensity is 0 [23]. - Market Information: From July 29 - August 4, 2025, domestic asphalt production decreased. As of August 4, factory inventory decreased slightly, and social inventory increased slightly [35]. LLDPE - Fundamental Tracking: On August 6, LLDPE futures prices increased, the basis and inter - month spread changed, and spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. The market price fluctuated slightly, and terminal demand was for moderate restocking [36]. - Market Situation Analysis: Macroscopically, the fundamentals of polyethylene have not improved significantly. Supply will increase in the third quarter, and demand support is weak, so the trend still faces pressure [37]. PP - Fundamental Tracking: On August 6, PP futures prices increased, the basis and inter - month spread changed, and spot prices in some regions decreased slightly. The market trading volume was light [40][41]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0 [41]. Caustic Soda - Fundamental Tracking: On August 6, the price of the 09 - contract caustic soda futures was 2506, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 820, and the basis was 57 [43]. - Market Situation Analysis: In the short - term, caustic soda is under pressure due to the off - season and the impact of 08 - contract warehouse receipts. In the long - term, there are expectations for peak - season demand [45]. Pulp - Fundamental Tracking: On August 6, pulp futures prices decreased slightly, trading volume and open interest decreased, and the basis and inter - month spread changed. Spot prices of different pulp types were stable. The trend intensity is 0 [49]. - Industry News: The pulp market is in a stalemate, with futures prices fluctuating narrowly and spot trading sparse. Demand is weak, and paper mills' raw material procurement is light [50]. Glass - Fundamental Tracking: On August 6, glass futures prices decreased, the basis and inter - month spread changed, and spot prices in some regions decreased. The market trading atmosphere was average [55]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0 [55]. Methanol - Fundamental Tracking: On August 6, methanol futures prices increased slightly, trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased. The basis and inter - month spread changed, and spot prices in some regions increased slightly. The trend intensity is 0 [58]. - Spot News: The methanol spot price index increased. The northwest market was strong, and the Shandong market followed the price increase, but demand was mainly for rigid needs [60]. Urea - Fundamental Tracking: On August 6, urea futures prices increased, trading volume increased significantly, and open interest decreased. The basis and inter - month spread changed, and factory and trading prices in some regions increased slightly. The trend intensity is 1 [62]. - Industry News: On August 5, urea production increased. The Indian tender on August 4 received over 4.5 million tons of offers. In the short - term, prices may rebound, but in the medium - term, they may decline after rising [63][64]. Styrene - Fundamental Tracking: On August 6, styrene futures prices changed slightly, and profit margins decreased. The trend intensity is - 1 [65]. - Spot News: Pure benzene supply and demand both increased, while styrene supply increased and demand decreased. Compress profit margins, and focus on shorting styrene. The port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation phase [66]. Soda Ash - Fundamental Tracking: On August 6, soda ash futures prices increased, trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased. The basis and inter - month spread changed, and spot prices were stable. The trend intensity is 0 [70]. - Spot News: The domestic soda ash market was stable, with supply at a high level and demand weak [70]. LPG and Propylene - Fundamental Tracking: On August 6, LPG futures prices decreased, and propylene futures prices changed slightly. The basis and inter - month spread changed, and the operating rates of related industries such as PDH, MTBE, and alkylation changed. The trend intensities of LPG and propylene are both 0 [73]. - Market Information: On August 4, the expected prices of Saudi CP for propane and butane in September and October decreased. There are many domestic PDH and LPG device maintenance plans [80][81]. PVC - Fundamental Tracking: On August 6, PVC futures prices increased slightly, but spot trading was light. The basis and inter - month spread are - 152 and - 135 respectively. The trend intensity is 0 [82]. - Market Situation Analysis: PVC fundamentals have not improved significantly. In the second half of the year, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market will short the chlor - alkali profit [82][83]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fundamental Tracking: On August 6, fuel oil futures prices had a narrow - range adjustment at night, and low - sulfur fuel oil was weaker than high - sulfur in the short - term. Spot prices of fuel oil in different regions changed slightly. The trend intensities of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are both 0 [86]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Fundamental Tracking: On August 6, the container freight index (European line) futures prices of some contracts decreased, while others increased. Freight rates of European and US - West routes decreased. The trend is expected to remain weak, and short positions can be held as appropriate [88].