Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures varieties on August 5, 2025, including their price movements, influencing factors, and market trends. Different futures have different price trends and influencing factors, and the market shows a complex and diverse situation. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On August 5, A-share major indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index back above 3,600 points. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.96% to 3,617.60 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.59% to 11,106.96 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.39% to 2,343.38 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.5961 trillion yuan, an increase of 97.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index was strong on August 5, closing at 4,103.45, a rise of 32.75 from the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 5, the weighted index of coke fluctuated strongly, closing at 1,674.9, a rise of 61.0 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal maintained a wide - range fluctuation, closing at 1,146.6 yuan, a rise of 77.7 from the previous day [3][4]. - For coke, the 5 - round spot price increase has been fully implemented, the coking profit has been repaired, and the coking start - up rate is expected to increase. The downstream steel mills maintain a high level of hot metal, and the coke spot resources are relatively tight. There are still plans to increase the price in August. For coking coal, there are new停产 mines this week, some coal types are in short supply, and the mine restart speed is slow. The average daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the port this week is more than 1,000 vehicles, and the import profit of sea - borne coal has narrowed, but most coal types are still cost - effective [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the news that Pakistan TCP company tendered to purchase 100,000 tons of refined sugar and the possible rise in sugar prices due to the decline in European production and sales, the US sugar fluctuated slightly higher on Monday. Supported by the US sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract closed slightly higher on Tuesday, but fell slightly at night due to short - selling pressure [5]. - As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi were 5.4961 million tons, an increase of 396,600 tons year - on - year; the sales rate was 85.01%, an increase of 2.51 percentage points year - on - year. The industrial inventory was 968,900 tons, a decrease of 113,000 tons year - on - year. In July, the single - month sugar sales were 355,500 tons, a decrease of 217,800 tons year - on - year [5]. Rubber - Due to the increase in rainfall in the Thai production area, the spot price quotes in Southeast Asia stopped falling and rose. Supported by concerns about the Thai weather, the Shanghai Rubber fluctuated higher on Tuesday and closed slightly higher after a slight adjustment at night due to technical factors. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first half of the year were 2.257 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on August 5, the CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans was higher than expected, but the market was worried about the demand of consumer countries. Domestically, on August 5, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated, and the main M2509 contract closed at 3,023 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.03%. The import of soybeans is sufficient, the oil mill's crushing volume remains high, the terminal feed and breeding industry purchases as needed, the提货 demand is less than the production, and the inventory continues to accumulate. However, the low - level procurement volume of soybeans in the fourth quarter in China has led to concerns about supply shortages, and the soybean meal may fluctuate widely [6][8]. Live Pigs - On August 5, the live pig futures price fluctuated, and the main LH2511 contract closed at 13,880 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.18%. The supply side has a stable slaughter rhythm, and the short - term market supply is sufficient. In the medium term, the pig production capacity is still in the release stage. The demand side is affected by high - temperature weather, and the pork consumption demand is weak. The overall live pig market shows a situation of loose supply and demand [8]. Palm Oil - On August 5, the palm oil price rebounded strongly after testing the support level the previous day, and the main contract closed with a large positive line, rising 2.56% to 9,064 yuan. India's palm oil imports in July decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons, while the soybean oil imports increased by 38% month - on - month to 495,000 tons. The estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from July 1 - 31 were 896,362 tons, a decrease of 25.01% compared with the previous month [9]. Shanghai Copper - The US non - farm payrolls data was far lower than expected, increasing market concerns about the US economic recession and boosting the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Historically, the probability of the Shanghai Copper price rising in August and September is relatively high, and the current period has a tendency to strengthen according to the cycle law. Fundamentally, the LME and COMEX copper inventories are high, but the SHFE inventory is low, the domestic spot is relatively tight, and the downstream is actively purchasing at low prices. However, the reverse flow of the copper inventory hoarded in the US may suppress the price [10]. Iron Ore - On August 5, the main 2509 contract of iron ore fluctuated and rose, with a gain of 1.2% and a closing price of 798.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment decreased this period, the arrival increased, the port inventory increased slightly, and the hot metal production decreased but remained at a relatively high level of 2.4 million tons. The short - term demand has strong resilience, and the iron ore price is in a volatile trend [10]. Asphalt - On August 5, the main 2509 contract of asphalt fluctuated and fell, with a decline of 1.58% and a closing price of 3,544 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased last week, the shipment volume also increased, the demand recovery is slow but there is still a repair expectation, and the low inventory supports the price. The short - term price fluctuates [10]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 13,675 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. The lowest basis price quote at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market on August 6 was 400 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 121 lots compared with the previous day [11]. Log - On August 5, the 2509 log contract opened at 841.5, with a minimum of 825.5, a maximum of 841.5, and closed at 829, with a decrease of 1,531 lots in positions. The external price quote increased, driving the domestic futures price up. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradiction, and the spot trading is weak [13]. Steel - On August 5, the rb2510 contract closed at 3,233 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3,457 yuan/ton. The current coal mine inventory is generally low, the coking coal market is stable, and the fifth round of coke price increase has been implemented. However, the steel mills' purchasing sentiment has become cautious, and it is difficult for the coke price to continue to rise. Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the steel demand is weak, and the supply - demand pressure may increase. In the short term, the steel price may adjust widely [13]. Alumina - On August 5, the ao2509 contract closed at 3,227 yuan/ton. The weak consumption in the off - season continues, the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is slow, the procurement demand for alumina raw materials is light, and the high price of alumina itself restricts the upward momentum of the futures price. In the short term, the supply - demand support for alumina will gradually weaken, and the futures price center may face adjustment pressure [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 5, the al2509 contract closed at 20,560 yuan/ton. The downstream is still in the off - season, the spot is purchased as needed, and the spot premium is weak. In the short term, the inventory is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure. Whether the price can break through depends on the inventory trend and consumption recovery signal during the off - peak to peak season transition in August [14].
国新国证期货早报-20250806
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-08-06 01:31