碳酸锂：宽幅震荡，资源端扰动仍未落地

Report Overview - Report Date: August 6, 2025 - Report Title: Lithium Carbonate: Wide - Range Fluctuations, Resource - End Disturbances Unresolved - Analysts: Shao Wanyi (Investment Consulting Qualification No.: Z0015722), Liu Hongru (Contact, Futures Trading Qualification No.: F03124172) 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing wide - range fluctuations, and the resource - end disturbances have not been settled yet [1]. - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4]. 3. Content Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - Futures Contracts: For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 67,680 yuan, down 1,240 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 173,147 lots, down 74,751 lots; the open interest was 175,266 lots, down 32,504 lots. For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 67,840 yuan, down 1,200 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 437,207 lots, up 148,821 lots; the open interest was 232,062 lots, up 16,113 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts was 14,443 lots, up 1,840 lots from T - 1 [2]. - Basis: The basis of spot - 2509 was 3,520 yuan, up 1,090 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2511 was 3,360 yuan, up 1,050 yuan from T - 1; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was - 160 yuan, down 40 yuan from T - 1 [2]. - Raw Materials: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 760 yuan, unchanged from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,710 yuan, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. - Lithium Salts: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan, down 150 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,100 yuan, down 150 yuan from T - 1 [2]. - Downstream Products: The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 110,360 yuan, up 80 yuan from T - 1; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 114,390 yuan, up 30 yuan from T - 1; the price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) was 145,230 yuan, up 60 yuan from T - 1 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 70,988 yuan/ton, down 139 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,100 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton [3]. - In July 2025, the domestic energy storage market completed 9.0GW/25.8GWh of energy storage system and EPC general contracting procurement and bidding work, and another 1.73GWh of energy storage DC - side orders were finalized. The proportion of independent energy storage projects in the total procurement scale was as high as 92%, while the proportion of renewable energy - paired energy storage projects has been declining for several months, reaching only 3.8% in July [4].