中辉期货今日重点推荐-20250806

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most varieties are rated as 'Cautiously Bearish', some as 'Bearish' [1][2] Core Views of the Report - For most commodities, factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost changes, and macro - policy impacts lead to downward price pressure [1][2] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Core View: Partially take profit on short positions due to supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical risks [1][3] - Key Points: OPEC's planned September production increase of 548,000 barrels per day, combined with the mid - to - late peak season, causes downward pressure on oil prices. The key support level is around $60 per barrel [5][7] LPG - Core View: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions [1][8] - Key Points: Cost - end oil price decline and Saudi's CP contract price reduction drag down LPG. Although the fundamentals are okay, there is short - term downward pressure [10][11] L (PE) - Core View: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions [1][13] - Key Points: Spot prices fall, inventory accumulates, and supply pressure increases. New capacity is expected to be put into production in August [16] PP - Core View: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions or conduct 9 - 1 calendar spreads [1][19] - Key Points: Supply - demand is weak, with high inventories in the upstream and mid - stream. Third - quarter production capacity pressure is high [23] PVC - Core View: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions and wait for a rebound to go short [1][26] - Key Points: Rising raw material costs, postponed maintenance, and new capacity release lead to inventory accumulation in August [29] PX - Core View: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions and sell put options [1][32] - Key Points: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, with high inventory. PXN is not low, and there is a lack of macro - level positive factors [34] PTA - Core View: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions and sell put options [1][36] - Key Points: Supply pressure may increase with new device production, while demand is weak. The processing fee is low [38] MEG - Core View: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions, sell put options, and look for low - buying opportunities [1][40] - Key Points: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, with low inventory. Market sentiment has cooled [42] Glass - Core View: Cautiously bearish, wait for the correction to end [2][44] - Key Points: Production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, and inventory transfer rather than terminal consumption leads to inventory reduction [47] Soda Ash - Core View: Cautiously bearish, wait for the correction to end [2][49] - Key Points: Macro - policy hype has cooled, supply has decreased slightly, but inventory remains high, and the supply - demand surplus persists [52] Caustic Soda - Core View: Bearish, the price range has declined [2][54] - Key Points: Supply - demand is balanced, inventory is high year - on - year, and there is no obvious fundamental driver. The downstream alumina market has corrected [57] Methanol - Core View: Cautiously bearish, take profit on 09 short positions, sell call options, and look for low - buying opportunities for 01 [2][59] - Key Points: Supply pressure increases with the resumption of domestic and overseas devices. Demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is accumulating [60] Urea - Core View: Cautiously bearish, take profit on short positions and look for low - buying opportunities [2] - Key Points: Production capacity is expected to increase, domestic demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating, but exports are relatively good [2] Propylene - Core View: Cautiously bearish, hold short positions or conduct 1 - 2 calendar spreads [2] - Key Points: Spot prices are weak, cost support is weakening, and inventory is accumulating [2]