铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the market is pricing in the risk of a cooling US economy and an escalation of tariff threats. The US ISM Services PMI in July dropped to 50.1, indicating rising stagflation risks, while the Markit Services PMI rose to 55.7. Trump announced potential tariff hikes, and the appointment of a new Fed Chair is anticipated. In the domestic market, the Chinese Services PMI in July reached a 14 - month high. A - shares showed a bullish trend, and the bond market was volatile. In August, with limited domestic policy and event expectations and increasing overseas uncertainties, the equity market may oscillate, and opportunities in the bond market should be monitored [2][3]. - For precious metals, supported by interest - rate cut expectations, gold and silver continued to rebound. The market expects the Fed to start cutting rates in September, and Trump's tariff announcements may further boost risk - aversion sentiment [4][5]. - In the copper market, the US service industry is at risk of stagnation, but the expectation of a September rate cut has increased. With overseas concentrate shortages and mine restart issues, and inventory rebounds, copper prices are expected to find support and then stabilize [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure. Although the decline in the US Services PMI has increased speculation of a Fed rate cut, global economic uncertainties and trade policies have affected demand. With rising inventory, aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure [8][9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be under pressure and oscillate. With an increase in warehouse receipts and a relaxation of market supply, and stable consumption, the market shows a mixed situation [10]. - Zinc prices are expected to be under pressure below the moving average. With a weakening economy, weak consumption, and increasing supply, the expectation of an oversupply is strong, but the short - term decline may be limited [11][12]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weak. With limited consumption improvement, supply increases, and potential cost support weakening, lead prices lack upward momentum [13][14]. - Tin prices may have limited upward momentum. Although supply has marginally recovered, consumption is weak, and the market is in a destocking phase. The price rebound driven by capital reduction may face pressure [15]. - Industrial silicon prices may stop falling. With the increase in production during the southwest's wet season and the rebound of warehouse receipts, and the recovery of anti - involution sentiment, the prices are expected to stabilize [16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices are weak. Affected by the cooling of anti - involution governance, prices are returning to fundamentals. Technically, there is still room for decline, but policy risks remain high [18][19]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate. With weakening terminal demand and an expected supply surplus, but a solid cost base, and fluctuating macro - expectations, nickel prices will remain volatile [20]. - Crude oil prices are weak. With the potential reduction of US sanctions on Russia and OPEC+'s production increase plan, along with rising stagflation concerns, oil prices are expected to be weak, but Middle - East geopolitical risks should be watched [21]. - Steel prices are expected to be slightly bullish. With stable spot trading, the output of major steel products is stable, and demand is mixed. With the expected supply reduction due to the northern parade limit, prices may oscillate upwards [22][23]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate. With a slight increase in port inventory, stable supply, and high steel - mill iron - water production, prices will remain range - bound, and the impact of northern parade - related production limits should be monitored [24]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate. With normal precipitation in US soybean - growing areas, slow export sales of new - crop soybeans, and the upcoming arrival of Argentine soybean meal, prices will show wide - range oscillations [25]. - Palm oil prices may oscillate and adjust. With concerns about a potential US stagflation, falling oil prices, and expectations of an inventory increase in Malaysian palm oil, but support from Indonesia's B40 policy, and the entry of long - position funds, palm oil prices are in an oscillatory phase [26][27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties' Trading Data - Presents the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc., along with their price units [28]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, it shows the price changes of SHFE copper and LME copper, as well as data on inventory, spot quotes, and other indicators from August 4th to 5th [29]. - For nickel, it provides price changes of SHFE nickel and LME nickel, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [29][32]. - For zinc, it presents price changes of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other indicators from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For lead, it shows price changes of SHFE lead and LME lead, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For aluminum, it provides price changes of SHFE aluminum and LME aluminum, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other indicators from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For alumina, it shows the price changes of SHFE alumina and the national average spot price, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For tin, it presents price changes of SHFE tin and LME tin, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other indicators from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For precious metals, it shows price changes of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For steel products, it provides price changes of SHFE rebar and hot - rolled coil, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other indicators from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For iron ore, it shows price changes of DCE iron ore, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For coking coal and coke, it presents price changes of DCE coking coal and coke, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other indicators from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For industrial silicon, it shows price changes of GFEX industrial silicon, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [30][32]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, it provides price changes of CBOT soybeans, DCE soybean meal, and CZCE rapeseed meal, and data on inventory, spot quotes, and other aspects from August 4th to 5th [30][32].