市场博弈加大，铁矿震荡为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In July, steel mills maintained high production intensity. Driven by profits, the mills' operation was at a high level, and molten iron production remained resilient, supporting raw material demand. The market began to factor in the expectations of production restrictions for the September military parade and flat control of crude steel output, with a greater impact on far - month contracts and a weakening of the monthly spread [3][14][43]. - In July, the total iron ore shipments declined seasonally but remained at a relatively high level. The weekly average shipments from Australia and Brazil were 22.63 million tons, a decrease of 2.97 million tons month - on - month. The weekly average shipments from Australia were 15.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.74 million tons month - on - month, and those from Brazil were 7.13 million tons, a decrease of 0.24 million tons month - on - month. Shipments from non - mainstream countries were 5.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 million tons month - on - month but still at a high level year - on - year. Shipments from regions such as India and Ukraine were stable. Shipments in August are expected to be stable [3][17][43]. - In the next month, focus on the impact of military parade production restrictions in the north. Macroscopically, important events such as China - US tariff negotiations have been finalized, and the expectation of anti - involution still provides support. Currently, steel mills' profitability is at a high level, and their willingness to start operations is strong. Demand will be resilient in the first and middle ten - days, while molten iron production will be under pressure in the last ten - days when production restrictions are implemented. Downstream demand will gradually enter the peak season, and the consumption expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" will strengthen. Coupled with steel mill production restrictions, there may be a short - term mismatch between steel supply and demand, and steel prices may drive up the prices of the black commodity sector. Iron ore prices are expected to show an oscillating trend [3][44]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In July, iron ore futures were generally strong. They rose in the first and middle ten - days and adjusted at a high level in the last ten - days, with the center of gravity moving up. The main contract of iron ore rose from 708 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to a high of 835 yuan/ton in the last ten - days, with a maximum increase of over 15%, and then fell back to 779 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The upward movement was dominated by macro - expectations, and the fundamental resilience provided support. In the last ten - days, the futures price corrected due to the revision of expectations [8]. - Spot prices also strengthened synchronously. The 62% Platts index rose 8.3% to $102.6, and the spot price of PB fines rose 63 yuan to 764 yuan/wet ton. The spread between high - and low - grade ores rebounded. The spread between PB fines and Super Special fines increased from around 110 yuan/ton to around 125 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Impact of August Production Restrictions - In July, steel mills maintained high production intensity. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.4%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points month - on - month but an increase of 1.1 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, at a high level for the year. The daily average molten iron production was over 2.4 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate reached 63.64%, a significant increase year - on - year. The market began to trade on the expectations of September military parade production restrictions and flat control of crude steel output, with a greater impact on far - month contracts [14]. - Overseas, iron ore demand was weak, mainly affected by the slowdown in global economic growth. The crude steel production of major iron ore importing countries declined significantly. From January to June, Japan's cumulative crude steel production was 40.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.03%; South Korea's was 30.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%; and Germany's was 17.21 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.8% [15]. 3.2.2 Supply: Stable Overseas Shipments - In the first six months of this year, China's iron ore imports decreased year - on - year. From January to June, China imported 592.2 million tons of iron ore, a 3% year - on - year decrease. In July, the total iron ore shipments decreased seasonally but remained at a relatively high level. The weekly average shipments from Australia and Brazil were 22.63 million tons, a decrease of 2.97 million tons month - on - month. Shipments in August are expected to be stable [17]. - The arrival volume in July decreased and was at the median level in the same period of the past three years. The daily average arrival volume was 3.66 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons month - on - month but an increase of 120,000 tons year - on - year. The arrival volume in August is expected to decrease month - on - month [18]. 3.2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - In July, the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports decreased month - on - month and was lower than the level of the same period last year. As of early August, the total inventory at 45 ports was 136.58 million tons, a decrease of 2.2 million tons compared with the beginning of last month and a decrease of 14.32 million tons compared with the same period last year. In August, attention should be paid to production restriction policies and the arrival rhythm. If molten iron production declines, inventory may start to accumulate [23]. 3.2.4 Steel Mill Inventory Situation - As of early August, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 90.12 million tons, an increase of 930,000 tons month - on - month. The daily consumption of imported ore was 2.995 million tons, a decrease of 13,500 tons compared with the beginning of last month. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.09, an increase of 0.44 month - on - month. The expectation of August military parade production restrictions may suppress the procurement enthusiasm [36]. 3.2.5 Domestic Mine Production Situation - In July, the production of domestic mines continued to contract. The national iron concentrate production was about 20.85 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 1.3%. The production reduction trend may continue in the medium and long term due to the peak of crude steel production and safety policies [37]. 3.2.6 Shipping Freight Situation - In July, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose, mainly driven by the increase in China's demand for bulk commodity imports and the peak season of Brazil's grain exports. As of August 4, the BDI index was reported at 1970 points, a month - on - month increase of 37%. The shipping freight rates for some key routes also increased [40]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The demand side will see strong demand in the first and middle ten - days of the next month, but molten iron production will be under pressure in the last ten - days when production restrictions are implemented. The supply side will have stable shipments in August. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [43][44].