8-10月债券市场展望：债市颠簸期

Group 1: Report Title and Basic Information - Report Title: "Bumpy Period in the Bond Market — Outlook for the Bond Market from August to October" [1] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Luan Qiang [2] - Research Support: Yang Linlin, Wang Zheyi [2] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Since 2025, the bond market's logic has switched multiple times, with long - term interest rates failing to break previous lows [3][47] - The economy still faces downward pressure on the demand side, and the new kinetic energy has not yet replaced the old in the short term. The policy effects of anti - involution may appear after the fourth quarter [5] - In the second half of 2025, the bond market has low odds, while the stock market has high odds. There is a risk of capital flowing from the bond market to the stock market [6] - The bond market is more sensitive to price expectations, and whether prices will rebound is a medium - term concern for the bond market [5] Group 3: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Analysis of the Bond Market's Trend and Macro Logic from January to Date - 2025 Q1: Tight funds and significant bank liability pressure led to a bond market correction [12] - 2025 Q2: Repeated tariff expectations, along with potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, caused yields to decline rapidly to a low level and then fluctuate [14] - July 2025: Anti - involution expectations and the stock - bond seesaw effect led to a pulse - like correction in the bond market. The term spread of treasury bonds expanded, and the credit spreads of secondary perpetual bonds and medium - term notes widened [16][17][22] - Overall Logic: The bond market's operation logic has switched from pessimistic liquidity expectations to economic improvement expectations, then to risk - preference switching under the "reciprocal tariff" shock, and finally to the stock - bond seesaw effect and capital diversion under anti - involution expectations [43][47] 2. Economic Cycle Position and the Connotation of Anti - Involution - Economic Cycle Position: On the demand side, the economy faces downward pressure due to insufficient effective demand. On the supply side, some industries show signs of profit improvement. The new kinetic energy has not replaced the old in the short term [51][65] - Anti - Involution Connotation and Price Transmission: Compared with the supply - side reform from 2016 - 2017, the current anti - involution is in the policy - guidance and industry - initiative stage, and its effects may appear after the fourth quarter. PMI price indicators and corporate production and operation activity expectations are effective indicators to observe anti - involution [74][77][94] - Bond Market's Reaction to Anti - Involution: From 2021 - 2024, the bond market followed the logic of "weak demand - policy reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to hedge demand decline - interest rate cuts failing to effectively promote corporate and household leverage - continuous decline in interest rates." Currently, the bond market may shift its focus from nominal interest rate decline to real interest rate decline [99][101][110] 3. Deposit Transfer and Capital Diversion Paths - Deposit Maturity: In 2025, about 52.4 trillion yuan of deposits in the six major banks are due, and it is estimated that about 108.3 trillion yuan of deposits in deposit - taking financial institutions are due [6][149] - Deposit, Wealth Management, and Insurance Growth: In 2025, the growth of deposits is not significant, wealth management growth is okay but weakened in July, and insurance premium income is similar to that in 2024 [150][155] - Capital Diversion: In recent years, deposits have mainly flowed into wealth management and insurance. In 2025, the return of fixed - income products has weakened, and there is an increasing demand for stock - bond hybrid products, which may divert funds from the bond market [151][167] 4. What the Bond Market is Pricing - Pricing Focus: The bond market is more sensitive to price expectations. Whether prices will rebound is a medium - term concern, and it may increase the weight of pricing nominal economic growth [5][7] - Bond Market Outlook: From August to October, the bond market is in a bumpy period. The 10 - year treasury bond at around 1.7% may not be cost - effective. The recommended bond investment order is convertible bonds > certificates of deposit > long - term interest - rate bonds > credit bonds [8][9]