中泰期货晨会纪要-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Based on fundamental analysis, the report classifies various futures products into trend空头 (downward trend), 震荡偏空 (slightly bearish with oscillations), 震荡 (sideways movement), 震荡偏多 (slightly bullish with oscillations), and 趋势多头 (upward trend). For example, liquefied petroleum gas is in the 震荡偏空 category, while CSI 500 stock index futures are in the 震荡偏多 category [4]. - Based on quantitative indicators, products are categorized as 偏空 (bearish), 震荡 (sideways), and 偏多 (bullish). For instance, sugar is classified as 偏空, while lead futures are 偏多 [6]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend judgments for multiple futures products based on fundamental and quantitative analyses, and offers trading strategies and market outlooks for each product. It also analyzes macro - economic information and its impact on the futures market [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial - Stock Index Futures: The strategy is to follow the short - term strong trend. A - shares showed a strong performance, and with the release of policies and market expectations, the index rebounded after a pull - back, suggesting a continuation of the trend - following approach [12]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Consider a steepening strategy in the short - term and short long - term bonds. The central bank's open - market operations and the performance of the stock and commodity markets affect the bond market, and there is a possibility of the bond market weakening under the pressure of stocks and commodities [13]. 3.2 Black (Steel and Minerals) - Steel and Ore: The black market is expected to be in a high - level oscillation. Demand may seasonally weaken, but the decline is limited in the medium - term. Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel and ore prices are likely to oscillate between the cost of valley - electricity and flat - electricity [14][15]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices of coking coal and coke may enter a high - level oscillation phase. Supply is expected to be tight in the short - term, but there are also factors that may put pressure on prices, such as the possible decline in steel production and sufficient imported Mongolian coal supply [16]. - Ferroalloys: After the sharp decline of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the futures premium bubble has almost disappeared. It is recommended to consider strategies such as going long on the spread between ferrosilicon and silicomanganese or conducting reverse arbitrage between near - and far - month contracts of silicomanganese. In the long - term, a bearish approach is appropriate [17]. - Soda Ash and Glass: For soda ash, maintain a short - selling strategy when prices are high and exit flexibly if the positive feedback atmosphere returns. For glass, it is advisable to wait and see. The supply of soda ash has returned to a high level, and there is potential delivery pressure. The glass market needs to digest speculative inventory [18]. 3.3 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the short - term. For alumina, there is room for the basis to repair, and it is advisable to go long on the basis in the short - term. In the long - term, due to supply - demand imbalances, it is recommended to short alumina at high prices [21]. - Zinc: Social zinc inventories are increasing, and with the recovery of smelter production and weak downstream demand, zinc prices are expected to oscillate downward [22]. - Lithium Carbonate: The current tight - balance fundamentals support prices, and the short - term decline is limited. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [23]. - Industrial Silicon: The main contradiction lies in the resumption of production of leading manufacturers. The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to downstream policies and supply - side policies [24]. - Polysilicon: The policy expectation has cooled, and the price may return to the fundamentals and warehouse - receipt game. The supply - demand situation is relatively loose, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether policies can stimulate terminal demand [25][26]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - Cotton: Cotton prices are under pressure to oscillate and rebound. It is recommended to short at high prices. Domestic downstream demand is weak, but supply concerns support prices. Attention should be paid to macro - economic and supply - demand factors [26][27]. - Sugar: Domestic sugar prices are under downward pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar supply and the decline in import costs. However, the expected demand during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may limit the decline [28][29]. - Eggs: The 09 contract price of eggs has reached a historical low. The supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival is large, and the upside is limited. It is advisable to wait and see, and be cautious when considering bottom - fishing [32]. - Apples: It is recommended to conduct a light - position positive arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the listing price and consumption of new - season apples and the price of old - season apples [34]. - Corn: Corn prices are expected to oscillate widely. The supply and demand sides are under pressure, but there is also support from policies. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and policy implementation [35]. - Red Dates: It is advisable to wait and see. The production is still in dispute, and the market is oscillating [36]. - Pigs: It is recommended to short near - month contracts and consider a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage strategy. The supply is strong and the demand is weak in the short - term [36][37]. 3.5 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The market is worried about oil demand due to the downward revision of US economic data. OPEC+ is increasing supply, and the long - term trend is towards a supply - surplus situation. Attention should be paid to US secondary sanctions on Russia and the summer demand [39]. - Fuel Oil: There is no clear main - line logic for oil prices. The price is expected to oscillate between 70 and 65 dollars, and low - sulfur fuel oil prices will follow oil prices [39]. - Plastic: The market sentiment is unstable, and polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply is strong and the demand is weak [41]. - Rubber: In the short - term, rubber prices may oscillate slightly stronger. It is advisable to short - long after a pull - back and be cautious when chasing high prices [42]. - Methanol: Methanol prices follow the overall commodity trend and are expected to oscillate weakly. The supply and demand are weak, and the port inventory is increasing [43]. - Caustic Soda: The supply in Shandong is at a high level, and the sales pressure of chlor - alkali enterprises is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [44]. - Asphalt: Asphalt prices follow oil prices. The oil price has no clear main - line logic, and the asphalt market is in a seasonal transition period with slow inventory reduction [45][46]. - Polyester Industry Chain: The market is still weak. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately, but not to increase short positions aggressively. The cost is under pressure due to the decline in oil prices, and the supply and demand are not favorable [47]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The supply of LPG is abundant, and the demand is expected to decline in the long - term. The price is likely to fall [48]. - Pulp: The main - contract sentiment is cooling, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and spot trading [49]. - Logs: The spot price has increased, and the basis is being chased. There is some hedging space, and it is advisable to observe and consider hedging at high prices [50]. - Urea: The Indian urea tender price is higher than the domestic export price, which has a certain positive impact on the market. It is recommended to maintain a wide - range oscillation strategy [50].