股指期货日报-20250806

Group 1: Market Overview and Review - A-shares' three major indices slightly declined today. The trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.5984 trillion yuan, a significant reduction of 337.7 billion yuan compared to yesterday. The four major stock index futures maintained a volatile pattern with mixed results. As of the close, the IF2509 contract fell 0.52%, the IH2509 contract fell 0.63%, the IC2509 contract fell 0.13%, and the IM2509 contract rose 0.25% [2]. - Futures market data shows that the IF2508 contract closed at 4042.8 points, down 21.0 points or 0.52%, with a trading volume of 28,026 and a position volume of 44,554, and a capital outflow of 1.11 billion yuan. The IF2509 contract closed at 4029.6 points, down 21.2 points or 0.52%, with a trading volume of 56,881 and a position volume of 151,416, and a capital inflow of 2.106 billion yuan [6]. - In the spot market, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4054.93 points today, down 20.66 points from the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3559.95 points, down 13.26 points. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10991.32 points, down 18.45 points. The ChiNext Index closed at 2322.63 points, down 5.68 points [6][9]. Group 2: Analysis of Influencing Factors 2.1 Analysis of Important News and Events - Domestically, on July 31, CCTV News reported that the National Healthcare Security Administration supports new technologies such as brain - computer interfaces to enter clinical use and be charged, and has established a "first - launch price mechanism for newly listed drugs" to encourage drug R & D innovation. Policy - level innovation in drug pricing can have a positive impact, but there are still challenges for some enterprises [8]. - Overseas, the US core PCE price index annual rate in June was 2.8%, flat with the previous value and higher than the expected 2.7%, and the monthly rate was 0.3%, in line with expectations but higher than the previous value of 0.2%. The personal spending monthly rate in June was 0.3%, lower than the expected 0.4% but higher than the previous value of 0.0%. Trump signed a new executive order to adjust additional tariff rates on goods from multiple countries, which will take effect on August 1. This, along with Powell's concerns about tariffs, adds uncertainty to the Fed's future interest - rate cut plans [8][10]. 2.2 Tracking and Interpretation of Related Data - In the overnight market, the US dollar index rose 0.11% to 100.03 after an unexpected rebound in the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, reaching above the 100 mark for the first time in two months, with six consecutive trading days of gains and the first monthly increase in 2025. The three major US stock indices all declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.74%, the S&P 500 down 0.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite slightly down, while the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.66% [11]. Group 3: Conclusion and Outlook - Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish stance and the rebound of US core inflation make the Fed's future interest - rate cut more uncertain and put pressure on US stocks. Domestically, the Politburo meeting's measures to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market strengthen market confidence in A - shares and help reduce market volatility. In the short term, stock index futures are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend, but attention should be paid to the callback risk caused by long - position profit - taking [12][13].