国泰君安期货所长早读-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings but provides a "Focus Index" for specific sectors: the coal and coke sector is rated ★★★★, indicating high attention [8]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Policy Impact: The joint issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - style Industrialization" by seven departments including the People's Bank of China aims to promote the high - end development of industries, support digital infrastructure construction, prevent "involution - type" competition, and enhance the supply guarantee capacity of strategic resources [7]. - Sector Analysis - Coal and Coke: Supply contraction expectations are strengthening, and the market is in a pattern of weak current situation and strong future expectations. The coal and coke market is expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. - PX: With supply increasing and demand decreasing in August, the supply - demand structure is gradually becoming balanced, and a short - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [12]. - Other Commodities: Different trends are presented for various commodities such as precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products, including trends like narrow - range fluctuations, bullish or bearish trends [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy News - Seven departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued an opinion to support new - style industrialization, strengthen long - term loan support for digital infrastructure construction, and support important mineral resource development [7]. - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue a record - high amount of short - term bonds this week, and there are concerns about the U.S. economic situation such as stagflation [24]. 3.2 Sector Highlights 3.2.1 Coal and Coke - Supply - Demand Situation: Domestic supply recovery is slow, and imports are normal. Policy - driven supply contraction expectations are strong. The fifth round of coke price increases has been implemented, but downstream steel mills are resistant to further increases [9][11]. - Price Analysis: From a valuation perspective, coal prices are affected by both the market and policy. From a spread perspective, it shows a pattern of weak current situation and strong future expectations [9][11]. 3.2.2 PX - Supply - Demand Changes: Supply increases due to device restarts, while demand decreases. The supply - demand structure is gradually becoming balanced, and the downward trend in spot prices and the pressure on the futures market are evident [12]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Market Performance: Gold shows a slight increase due to weak non - farm data, and silver rebounds slightly. The trend intensity of both is relatively weak [20][23]. 3.2.4 Base Metals - Copper: LME inventories increase, and prices are under pressure. Trump's tariff policy on copper products and the suspension of a Chilean copper mine's operation have an impact on the market [25]. - Zinc: The market is in a weak and volatile state, affected by factors such as inventory changes and macro - news [28]. - Lead: Inventory decreases, and prices are supported [32]. - Tin: The market is in a range - bound state, and the trend intensity is slightly bearish [34]. - Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy: Aluminum is in a range - bound state, alumina shows a slight decline, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [42]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The nickel market has intensified long - short competition and narrow - range fluctuations. Stainless steel is dragged down by supply - demand realities, but raw material costs limit the downside [46]. 3.2.5 Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: The market is in a wide - range fluctuation state, and resource - side disturbances have not been resolved [51]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has a weak fundamental situation, and polysilicon is affected by more news disturbances [55]. - Iron Ore: The market is in a volatile and repeated state [59]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by sector sentiment, they are in a wide - range fluctuation state, and the supply - demand situation and macro - policies have an impact on the market [62]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide: Affected by market information, they are in a wide - range fluctuation state. The cost and price of raw materials and market transactions have an impact on the market [67]. - Coke and Coking Coal: They are expected to be volatile and bullish, with supply contraction expectations and price increases [72]. - Log: The market is in a volatile and repeated state [76].