钢材月报：北方阅兵限产，钢价震荡偏强-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the next month, with increasing constraints on steel supply and demand in the off - season, steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The "anti - involution" policy has a mid - term impact on the supply - demand relationship, and the steel market is in a double - weak supply - demand pattern [4]. - In July, steel futures prices rose strongly driven by policies and then回调 at the end of the month. In August, the market focuses on the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, pre - parade production restrictions, and the demand expectations for the peak seasons [9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - In July, steel futures prices rose strongly due to policy drivers and then fell at the end of the month. The main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose by over 10%. Spot prices also increased. The "anti - involution" policy and coal mine over - production checks led to cost increases, pushing up prices. At the end of the month, the lack of incremental stimulus policies and lower - than - expected PMI caused market sentiment to cool down [9]. - In August, the market focuses on the implementation of the "anti - involution" policy, pre - parade production restrictions, and the demand expectations for the peak seasons [9]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Anti - Involution Policy Disturbance, Supply Expectation Enhancement - The "anti - involution" policy in July aimed to regulate market competition. In the short term, it caused price fluctuations in coking coal. In the long term, it may reshape the supply - demand structure and profit distribution in the black commodity market. The coal industry may see increased concentration and pricing power [15]. - In July, steel supply remained relatively high. Profit - driven production led to high iron - water output and increased short - process production. In August, pre - parade production restrictions are expected, but supply in the first and middle of the month remains elastic [16]. 2.2 Steel Inventory Accumulation Accelerated at the End of the Month - In July, steel inventory continued to decline overall but showed signs of marginal accumulation at the end of the month. The total inventory of five major steel products increased slightly, with social inventory rising and factory inventory falling. Due to production restrictions and policies in August, inventory pressure is generally not large [19]. 2.3 Demand in the Off - Season, Weak Real Estate and Slowing Infrastructure - In July, steel demand was weak in the off - season, but exports remained resilient. Construction steel demand was weak due to the real - estate slump, and infrastructure investment growth slowed. Plate demand also weakened marginally. The manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range, and the "trade - in" policy's effect on the manufacturing industry diminished [22]. 2.4 Increased Policy Impact - Multiple policies were introduced in July. The "anti - involution" policy affected the steel market. Real - estate investment continued to decline, while the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started, which may drive new infrastructure investment expectations [24][27][28]. 3. Market Outlook - Supply side: In July, steel supply remained high with significant differentiation among varieties. In August, pre - parade production restrictions are expected, but supply in the first and middle of the month remains elastic due to profit incentives [44][46]. - Demand side: In July, steel demand was weak in the off - season, but exports remained resilient. Construction steel and plate demand both declined. Manufacturing was under pressure, and overseas exports maintained a good growth rate [46]. - In the next month, with increasing supply constraints and demand in the off - season, steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend due to policy impacts [47].