铝日报-20250806

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team, including Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Aluminum Market - On the 5th, Shanghai Aluminum continued to fluctuate strongly. The main contract 2509 closed up 0.51% at 20,560. The total index positions increased by 934 to 574,153 lots. The 08 - 09 premium was reported at 40. Aluminum ingot social inventories continued to grow, and spot prices were all at discounts. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly following Shanghai Aluminum, with the AD - AL negative spread reported at - 485 [8]. - In August, the supply of bauxite tends to tighten due to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea. However, with high port inventories and the resumption of some停产 mines, the shortage is expected to be limited, and the bauxite price will mainly operate at the bottom [8]. - The stimulus of the anti - involution policy for over - capacity industries on related industrial products has temporarily ended. The over - capacity pattern of alumina remains unchanged. Before the policy is clear, the upside space of alumina should be viewed with caution, and short - selling can be considered at high points [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off - season for the automotive industry. With weakening demand and a shortage of scrap aluminum supply, cast aluminum will continue to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai Aluminum, and the AD - AL will maintain a low - level negative spread structure [8]. - In the electrolytic aluminum sector, the domestic operating capacity remains at a high level. The demand side is still sluggish in the off - season, and inventories are seasonally increasing. The profits of smelting enterprises have declined but are still substantial. Currently, the aluminum market is dominated by macro - sentiment. The decline of the US dollar and domestic policy expectations support the sector to be strong, but the off - season continues, and short - selling can be appropriately considered [8]. Group 3: Industry News Ghana's Bauxite Agreement - Ghana has canceled a $1.2 billion bauxite agreement with local company Rocksure International and is seeking cooperation with a large overseas company to develop one of the richest bauxite mines in West Africa. Potential partners include the UAE's Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) or a Chinese company. The canceled agreement covered the Nyinahin Hills mine in central Ghana, which contains about 376 million tons of bauxite. Ghana has about 900 million tons of bauxite, ranking seventh in the world [9][10]. China's Aluminum Import and Export Data - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6% [10]. - In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10]. Guinea's Mining License Revocation - On the evening of July 17, 2025, Guinea's National Television announced that the Ministry of Mines and Geology had revoked the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. The revoked bauxite enterprises all have long - term idle mining rights and no actual mining activities. The official said that these mining rights were taken back by the state free of charge as part of a comprehensive rectification of the national mining registration system to improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management [10]. Restart of Alcoa's Spanish Smelter - Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to be restarted by mid - 2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million due to the delay. The plant's production decreased in 2021 due to high electricity prices. The restart plan was postponed due to a nationwide power outage in Spain on April 28. After evaluating the power outage losses, the joint - venture company suspended the resumption of production until the Spanish government provided detailed information on the cause of the power outage and measures to prevent similar events. On July 14, Alcoa and its joint - venture partner Ignis Equity Holdings confirmed that the restart of the San Ciprián electrolytic aluminum plant had resumed. Alcoa expects the smelter to record a net loss of about $90 million to $110 million in 2025, and the entire restart process is expected to be completed by mid - 2026 [10][11]