棕榈油期货日报-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of the palm oil p2509 futures contract showed a slight increase on August 1, 2025, but the short - term price may be weak and volatile. Future trends need to be observed in terms of main position changes, production area data during the production - increasing season, market consumption performance, and policy guidance [2][22] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On August 1, 2025, the palm oil p2509 futures contract opened lower and fluctuated, with three rallies followed by declines, closing at 8,910 yuan/ton, up 0.11% from the previous settlement price. Near the delivery date, it's about to shift positions. The trading volume was 512,100 lots, an increase of 33,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 394,100 lots, a decrease of 300 lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The prices of 12 palm oil futures contracts fluctuated around the 8,900 - 8,600 yuan/ton mark, with a small monthly spread. The closing price difference between the main p2509 and the second - main p2601 was - 20 yuan/ton. The total open interest of the variety was 631,700 lots, an increase of 13,600 lots from the previous day, and the p2601 contract added 12,600 lots [5] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - For the palm oil 09 contract options, the implied volatility has declined for six consecutive days. The out - of - the - money call option with a strike price of 9,000 yuan/ton had a trading volume of over 23,800 lots. The put options with strike prices from 8,800 to 8,300 yuan/ton had large trading volumes and open interests, indicating a bearish market sentiment and a high expectation that the price will exceed 9,000 yuan/ton. The price of the Malaysian BMD main 10 contract weakened, closing at 4,230 ringgit/ton, down 1.12% from the previous settlement price [7] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Spot Prices - On August 1, 2025, the spot prices of 24 - degree palm oil at domestic ports were between 8,920 and 9,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [8] 3.2.2 Basis Data - The basis between the spot and the main futures contract was stable, at 160.33 yuan/ton on the day, unchanged from the previous day [10] 3.2.3 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 570 lots [11] 3.2.4 Import Profits - The import cost increased again, and the profit continued to be in a reverse state [16] 3.3 Influencing Factors - According to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit in Malaysia increased by 7.19% month - on - month in July, and the production increased by 7.07% month - on - month. Indonesia set the price of crude palm oil at $910.91/ton in August, a 3.76% increase from July. The export tax was $74/ton, a $22 increase from July. The special tax on crude palm oil remained at 10%. According to Indonesian statistics, the export volume of refined palm oil and crude palm oil in the first half of 2025 was 11 million tons, a 2.69% year - on - year increase, and the average export unit price increased by 22.2% year - on - year [20][21] 3.4 Market Outlook - The daily line of the continuous palm oil p2509 futures price closed with a positive line, but the price rebound was blocked by the 5 - day moving average. Technically, the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages formed a death cross. In the short term, the price may lack upward momentum and tend to fluctuate weakly. Future trends need to focus on main position changes, production area data during the production - increasing season, market consumption performance, and policy guidance [22]