Guoxin Securities·2025-08-06 02:10Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, driven by easing external conditions and increased domestic policy support, which is expected to boost overall market performance [2][43] - The report highlights a focus on leading companies with strong mid-year performance, indicating a potential for long-term investment opportunities despite recent market corrections [2][43] Policy Guidance and Market Environment - Domestic policies are aimed at stimulating consumer demand and countering excessive competition, creating a healthier environment for consumption recovery [12][16] - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy is expected to enhance family consumption capacity and provide greater autonomy in spending [13][14][16] - The central government continues to emphasize the importance of releasing domestic demand potential and implementing consumption-boosting actions [16] Industry Data Tracking - In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, indicating a sustained recovery momentum in consumer spending [18] - Online retail sales for the first half of 2025 amounted to 7.43 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5%, with physical goods online retail accounting for 24.9% of total retail sales [19] - The report notes that essential goods categories performed well, while discretionary categories showed mixed results, with jewelry sales increasing by 6.1% due to high gold prices [24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on cross-border e-commerce companies that are well-positioned to benefit from improving external trade conditions, recommending companies like Xiaoshangpin City and Focus Technology [2][43] - In the gold and jewelry sector, companies that can differentiate their brands and products are expected to achieve accelerated growth, with recommendations including Chaohongji and Chow Tai Fook [2][43] - The beauty and personal care sector is anticipated to benefit from the acceleration of domestic brand replacements, with recommended companies such as Shiseido and Shanghai Jahwa [2][43][44] - Traditional retail companies with positive internal adjustments and low valuations are also highlighted, with recommendations for Chongqing Department Store and Miniso [44]