贵金属日评：美国7月服务业PMI低于预期前值，警惕财政部发债对流动性冲击-20250806

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The weakening US employment market has increased the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and with global central banks continuing to buy gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. The support and resistance levels for London gold are around $3150 - 3250 and $3500 - 3700 respectively; for Shanghai gold, they are around 730 - 760 and 800 - 850 respectively; for London silver, they are around $34 - 38 and $37 - 40 respectively; for Shanghai silver, they are around 8500 - 8700 and 9100 - 9500 respectively [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Gold: Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 781.42, trading volume was 206379.00, open interest was 214105.00, inventory (in ten - gram units) was 2547.00, and the basis (spot - futures) was 1.72 [1] - Spot Shanghai Gold T + D: Trading volume on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 26258.00, open interest was 208048.00 [1] - Shanghai Silver: Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 9192.00, trading volume was 513898.00, open interest was 371051.00, inventory (in ten - gram units) was 1157291.00, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 40.00 [1] - Spot Shanghai Silver T + D: Trading volume on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 270788.00, open interest was - 36146.00 [1] - COMEX Gold Futures: Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 3435.00, trading volume was 176453.00, open interest was 340930.00, inventory (in troy ounces) was 38800719.69 [1] - COMEX Silver Futures: Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was 9052.00, trading volume was - 222180.00, open interest was 109684.00, inventory (in troy ounces) was 506602108.72 [1] - London Gold Spot: Price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was $3380.05 per ounce, SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 956.23 tons, iShare Gold ETF holdings were 449.31 tons [1] - London Silver Spot: Price on 2025 - 08 - 05 was $38.13 per ounce [1] - Gold - Silver Price Ratio: New York futures ratio was 91.56, London spot ratio was 90.37 [1] Important Information - The US Treasury plans to issue a large amount of debt this week, including $1000 billion in four - week Treasury bills, $850 billion in eight - week Treasury bills, $650 billion in 17 - week Treasury bills, $580 billion in three - year Treasury bonds, $420 billion in ten - year Treasury bonds, and $250 billion in 30 - year Treasury bonds. It has hinted that it will rely more on debt issuance to fill the fiscal deficit until at least 2026 [1] - The US July ISM Services PMI was only 50.1, with the employment index contracting and the price index reaching a new high since October 2022. Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week and will announce drug and chip tariffs within a week and significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours [1] - The US Treasury may issue about $5000 billion in the third quarter to replenish the cash account, which may cause a liquidity shock. Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to a slight increase in the US consumer - end inflation rates in June. However, due to the possible significant downward revision of the number of new non - farm payrolls from May to July or far lower - than - expected figures, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in September, October, and December [1] - The European Central Bank paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit facility rate at 2%. The eurozone (Germany) July CPI annual rate was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but flat compared to the previous value. Due to the continued recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France in July, the market expects the ECB to cut rates about once before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in June and continued to reduce its holdings of £1000 billion in government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK June CPI (core CPI) annual rate was 3.6% (3.7%), higher than expected and the previous value. The July S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing (Services) PMI was 48.2 (51.2), higher (lower) than expected and the previous value. Due to the consecutive negative monthly GDP growth rates from April to June, the expectation of a rate cut by the Bank of England on August 7 has increased, and it may cut rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly Treasury bond purchase scale from ¥4000 billion to ¥2000 billion in April 2026. The Japan (Tokyo) June (July) core CPI annual rate was 3.3% (2.9%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value (lower than expected and the previous value), so there is still an expectation of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan before the end of 2025 [1] Trading Strategy - Due to the weakening US employment market increasing the Fed rate - cut expectation and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices are likely to rise. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]