贵金属日评：美国7月服务业PMI低于预期前值警惕财政部发债对流动性冲击-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, and with global central banks continuously buying gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to build long positions when prices decline. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Gold: The closing price was 782.50 yuan, with a trading volume of 271,828.00 and an open interest of 217,696.00. The inventory was 120.00 (in ten grams). The spot price - futures price (basis) was 3.29 yuan [1]. - Shanghai Silver: The closing price was 9,075.00 yuan/kg, with a trading volume of 313,491.00 and an open interest of 367,528.00. The inventory was 1,174,273.00 (in ten grams). The spot price - futures price (basis) was -23.00 yuan [1]. - COMEX Gold Futures: The closing price was 121.00, with a trading volume of 132,941.00 and an open interest of 334,342.00. The inventory was 38,793,596.75 (in troy ounces) [1]. - COMEX Silver Futures: The closing price was 38.33, with a trading volume of 50,388.00 and an open interest of 125,217.00. The inventory was 506,311,741.34 (in troy ounces) [1]. - London Gold Spot: The price was 3,375.30 dollars/ounce, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 956.23 tons [1]. - London Silver Spot: The price was 37.35 dollars/ounce, and the US iShare Silver ETF holdings were 22.60 tons [1]. Important Information - US Treasury Bond Issuance: The US Treasury plans to issue a total of $37.5 billion in various - term Treasury bonds this week, and has hinted that it will rely more on bond issuance to fill the fiscal budget deficit until at least 2026 [1]. - US Economic Data: The US July ISM Services PMI was only 50.1, with the employment index contracting and the price index reaching a new high since October 2022. The US 5 - 7 month new non - farm payrolls may be significantly revised down or far below expectations, showing a "stagflation" characteristic [1]. - Central Bank Policies: - The European Central Bank paused rate cuts in July, maintaining the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The market expects the European Central Bank to cut rates about once before the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in June and continued to reduce government bond holdings. The market expects the Bank of England to cut rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1]. - The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% in July and will reduce quarterly Treasury bond purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen starting in April 2026. There is still an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025 [1].