Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, the macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, so a cautious approach is recommended [6][7]. - Regarding stock indices, although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low - level valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience make the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets promising. Consider going long on stock index futures [10][11]. - In the case of precious metals, the complex global trade and financial environment, along with the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, support the long - term bullish trend of precious metals. Consider going long on gold futures [12][13]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore, the policy currently dominates the market, and the prices follow the trend of coking coal. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks and hold existing long positions while managing their positions [14][16]. - For coking coal and coke, after the price fluctuations, the market is returning to the industrial supply - demand logic. Affected by policies, the prices may continue to be strong. Investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [17]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term supply may exceed demand, but there may be opportunities to go long at low levels when the cost provides support [20]. - Regarding crude oil, the market is complex with high uncertainty due to OPEC+ production increases, poor US non - farm data, and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [21][23]. - For fuel oil, the Asian market is well - supplied, and the new US tariff rate is unfavorable to the shipping market. The strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [24][25]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26][27]. - For natural rubber, although the macro - market sentiment has cooled, there are still opportunities to go long on pullbacks due to supply disruptions and cost support [28][29]. - For PVC, the supply exceeds demand, but the price may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [30][31]. - For urea, the short - term market may fluctuate, but a bullish view is held for the medium - term [32]. - For PX, the short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening. Consider range - bound trading [33]. - For PTA, the short - term supply changes little, demand may weaken, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening. There may be a callback risk, and range - bound trading is recommended [34][35]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply pressure increases, but the low - level inventory provides support. Consider range - bound trading and pay attention to port inventory and imports [36]. - For short - fiber, the short - term supply is high, demand is weak, and the price may fluctuate with the cost [37][38]. - For bottle - grade chips, the price may fluctuate with the cost due to raw material price fluctuations and device maintenance [39]. - For soda ash, the supply is at a high level, and the demand is average. The market is expected to adjust steadily in the short - term [40][41]. - For glass, the production is stable, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is weak. The price may be supported by cost in the short - term [42][43]. - For caustic soda, the supply is increasing after the resumption of production, and the price is expected to be stable [44][45]. - For pulp, the supply tends to expand, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [46][47]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply is high, the demand is improving but the trading is inactive. It is recommended to be cautious due to the uncertainty in the supply [49]. - For copper, the copper concentrate is in short supply, and the support factors for copper prices are weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [51][52]. - For tin, the supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [53]. - For nickel, the supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [54]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, the supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and there are opportunities to go long on soybean meal at the support level and exit long positions on soybean oil at high levels [55][57]. - For palm oil, the inventory is increasing, but there may be opportunities to go long [58][59]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the supply is expected to increase, and there are opportunities to go long [59][60]. - For cotton, the global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [61][63]. - For sugar, the production in Brazil is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - For apples, the production is expected to increase slightly, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [67][68]. - For live pigs, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [68][69]. - For eggs, the supply is increasing, and it is recommended to hold a 9 - 10 reverse spread [70][71]. - For corn and corn starch, the short - term supply - demand is balanced, and there are opportunities for virtual call options on old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows the corn market [73][74]. - For logs, the supply is tight, the demand is increasing, and the short - term bullish sentiment is strong [76][77]. Grouped by Product Categories Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts rising, and the 2 - year contract falling. The central bank conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 288.5 billion yuan [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the Treasury bond yield is at a low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market [6]. Stock Indices - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The seven - department joint guidance on financial support for new industrialization was issued [8][9]. - The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the low - level valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience make the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets promising. Consider going long on stock index futures [10]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed higher. The US trade deficit in June was 60.2 billion US dollars [12]. - The complex global trade and financial environment, along with the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, support the long - term bullish trend of precious metals. Consider going long on gold futures [12]. Steel Products - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The policy currently dominates the market, and the prices follow the trend of coking coal. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses rebar prices. Investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [14]. - Iron Ore: The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The policy dominates the market, and the price follows coking coal. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but it may weaken in the medium - term. Investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [16]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. After the price fluctuations, the market is returning to the industrial supply - demand logic. Affected by policies, the prices may continue to be strong. Investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [17]. - Ferroalloys: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The short - term supply may exceed demand, but there may be opportunities to go long at low levels when the cost provides support [19][20]. Energy Products - Crude Oil: The previous trading day, INE crude oil opened low and closed high. OPEC+ increased production, and the US non - farm data was poor. The market is complex with high uncertainty. It is recommended to wait and see [21][23]. - Fuel Oil: The previous trading day, fuel oil opened low and closed high. The Asian market is well - supplied, and the new US tariff rate is unfavorable to the shipping market. The strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [24][25]. Rubber Products - Synthetic Rubber: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The raw material price rebounded, and the supply and demand are improving. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - Natural Rubber: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The macro - market sentiment has cooled, but there are still opportunities to go long on pullbacks due to supply disruptions and cost support [28]. Chemical Products - PVC: The previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The supply exceeds demand, but the price may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [30]. - Urea: The previous trading day, urea futures rose. The short - term market may fluctuate, but a bullish view is held for the medium - term [32]. - PX: The previous trading day, PX futures fell. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening. Consider range - bound trading [33]. - PTA: The previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The short - term supply changes little, demand may weaken, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening. There may be a callback risk, and range - bound trading is recommended [34][35]. - Ethylene Glycol: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply pressure increases, but the low - level inventory provides support. Consider range - bound trading and pay attention to port inventory and imports [36]. - Short - Fiber: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The short - term supply is high, demand is weak, and the price may fluctuate with the cost [37][38]. - Bottle - Grade Chips: The previous trading day, bottle - grade chips futures fell. The price may fluctuate with the cost due to raw material price fluctuations and device maintenance [39]. - Soda Ash: The previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is average. The market is expected to adjust steadily in the short - term [40][41]. - Glass: The previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production is stable, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is weak. The price may be supported by cost in the short - term [42][43]. - Caustic Soda: The previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply is increasing after the resumption of production, and the price is expected to be stable [44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply tends to expand, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [46][47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is high, the demand is improving but the trading is inactive. It is recommended to be cautious due to the uncertainty in the supply [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures rose. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the support factors for copper prices are weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [51][52]. - Tin: The previous trading day, Shanghai tin futures rose. The supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [53]. - Nickel: The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel futures fell. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [54]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and there are opportunities to go long on soybean meal at the support level and exit long positions on soybean oil at high levels [55][57]. - Palm Oil: The previous trading day, palm oil futures rose. The inventory is increasing, but there may be opportunities to go long [58][59]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures rose. The supply is expected to increase, and there are opportunities to go long [59][60]. - Cotton: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded slightly. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [61][63]. - Sugar: The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fell. The production in Brazil is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - Apples: The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The production is expected to increase slightly, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [67][68]. - Live Pigs: The previous trading day, live pig futures rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [68][69]. - Eggs: The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is increasing, and it is recommended to hold a 9 - 10 reverse spread [70][71]. - Corn and Corn Starch: The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and there are opportunities for virtual call options on old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows the corn market [73][74]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures fell. The supply is tight, the demand is increasing, and the short - term bullish sentiment is strong [76][77].
西南期货早间评论-20250806
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-08-06 02:29