甲醇日评：焦煤仍带来情绪扰动-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. Upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, and inland downstream profits are poor with room for repair. Methanol valuation is relatively high. The anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production, and it's likely that ports will continue to accumulate inventory, suppressing the spot price in East China. Although coking coal sentiment will affect methanol, the rebound space for methanol is expected to be limited [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 closed at 2497 yuan/ton on August 5, 2025, up 10 yuan/ton (0.40%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2447 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.66%); MA09 closed at 2397 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.29%) [1] - Methanol Spot Prices: Spot prices in Shandong, Guangdong, Sichuan - Chongqing, and Hubei increased, while those in Shaanxi decreased. Prices in Taicang and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. For example, the price in Shandong rose 15 yuan/ton (0.65%) to 2330 yuan/ton, and the price in Shaanxi fell 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.12%) to 2122.5 yuan/ton [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 129.50 yuan/ton on August 5, 2025, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Raw Material Prices - Coal Spot Prices: The prices of Ordos Q5500 and Datong Q5500 increased, while the price of Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged. Ordos Q5500 rose 5 yuan/ton (1.04%) to 487.5 yuan/ton, and Datong Q5500 rose 12.5 yuan/ton (2.27%) to 562.5 yuan/ton [1] - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profits: Coal - based methanol profit was 470.40 yuan/ton on August 5, 2025, up 53.70 yuan/ton (12.89%) from the previous day. Natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 540.00 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream Profits: Profits of MTBE increased, while those of Northwest MTO, East China MTO, acetic acid, formaldehyde, and another product decreased. For example, MTBE profit rose 7.44 yuan/ton (4.64%) to 167.68 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit fell 32.00 yuan/ton (-5.08%) to - 661.57 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - Domestic Futures: The main methanol contract MA2509 stopped falling and rebounded, opening at 2374 yuan/ton, closing at 2397 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 372,112 lots, and open interest was 484,212 lots, with both volume and open interest decreasing [1] - Foreign Information: Two methanol plants with a total capacity of 2.65 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are under maintenance. The overall operating load of methanol plants in this country is low, with the recent overall operating rate dropping to 56%, and the daily total output of methanol plants less than 30,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the loading speed at the port in the future [1] Trading Strategy - The previous day, MA rebounded and closed at 2392 in the night session. The expectation of the anti - involution policy will still fluctuate. The daily limit of coking coal the previous day affected the sentiment of coal - chemical products. Considering the weak fundamentals, the rebound space for methanol is expected to be limited [1]