国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250806

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Non - farm payroll data weakened; Silver: Slight rebound; Copper: LME inventory increased, price under pressure; Zinc: Weak and volatile; Lead: Inventory decreased, price supported; Tin: Range - bound; Aluminum: Range - bound; Alumina: Slight decline; Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum; Nickel: Intensified long - short game, narrow - range fluctuation of nickel price; Stainless steel: Constrained by supply - demand reality, raw material cost limits downside space; Lithium carbonate: Wide - range fluctuation, resource - end disturbances not yet settled; Industrial silicon: Weak fundamental pattern, focus on market sentiment; Polysilicon: Increased news disturbances; Iron ore: Fluctuated repeatedly; Rebar: Plate sentiment resonance, wide - range fluctuation; Hot - rolled coil: Plate sentiment resonance, wide - range fluctuation; Ferrosilicon: Market information disturbances, wide - range fluctuation; Silicomanganese: Market information disturbances, wide - range fluctuation; Coke: Strong and volatile; Coking coal: Strong and volatile; Log: Fluctuated repeatedly; p - Xylene: Increasing supply - demand pressure, weakening trend; PTA: Negative demand feedback, weakening trend; MEG: Rebound driven by coal price recovery, go long MEG and short PTA/PX; Rubber: Fluctuated; Synthetic rubber: Short - term fluctuated; Asphalt: Consolidated after decline; LLDPE: Still under pressure; PP: Spot fluctuated, light trading; Caustic soda: Expectation for peak - season demand; Pulp: Fluctuated; Glass: Stable price of original sheet; Methanol: Fluctuated under pressure; Urea: International price increase may drive short - term speculation; Styrene: Compress profit and take profit, short in the short term; Soda ash: Little change in the spot market; LPG: Weak cost support; Propylene: Loose supply - demand pattern, short - term weak and volatile; PVC: Range - bound; Fuel oil: Narrow - range adjustment at night, mainly short - term fluctuated; Low - sulfur fuel oil: Weaker than high - sulfur in the short term, the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market declined again; Container shipping index (European line): Hold short positions as appropriate, may continue to be weak; Staple fiber: Off - season demand, weak and volatile; Bottle chips: Weak and volatile; Offset printing paper: Fluctuated at a low level, lack of upward momentum; Pure benzene: Weak and volatile; Palm oil: Repeated macro - sentiment, mainly go long at a low level; Soybean oil: Fluctuated at a high level, pay attention to the Sino - US trade agreement; Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans rose and then fell, Dalian soybean meal followed the decline; Soybean No.1: Followed soybeans, declined and fluctuated; Corn: Weak operation; Sugar: India's restorative production increase; Cotton: Pay attention to the impact of external markets; Eggs: Bullish expectation of spot price disappointed; Live pigs: Near - end spot pressure slightly exceeded expectations; Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Price Performance: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 782.50 with a daily increase of 0.14%, and the night - closing price was 784.40 with a night - increase of 0.01%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9075 with a daily increase of 0.40%, and the night - closing price was 9178.00 with a night - increase of 1.15% [7]. - Trend Intensity: Gold and silver trend intensities are both 1, indicating a relatively neutral - to - strong sentiment [10]. - Macro and Industry News: US data triggered stagflation concerns, US stocks and bonds fell, and gold rose slightly; China's central bank and other seven departments will support new - type industrialization; The US July ISM services index was only 50.1, etc. [8][11]. Copper - Price Performance: The closing price of Shanghai copper's main contract was 78,580 with a daily increase of 0.32%, and the night - closing price was 78070 with a night - decline of 0.65%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk was 9,635 with a decline of 0.76% [12]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [14]. - Macro and Industry News: Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products; Chile's Codelco suspended the operation of the El Teniente copper mine [12][14]. Zinc - Price Performance: The closing price of Shanghai zinc's main contract was 22380 with a daily increase of 0.56%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2754 with an increase of 0.90% [15]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [18]. - Macro and Industry News: The US Treasury plans to issue a record - high amount of short - term bonds; If non - farm payrolls deteriorate further, the Fed may cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September [16]. Lead - Price Performance: The closing price of Shanghai lead's main contract was 16775 with a daily increase of 0.15%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1963.5 with a decline of 0.53% [19]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [19]. - Macro and Industry News: The US July ISM services PMI was only 50.1; Trump will make decisions on new Fed governors [19]. Tin - Price Performance: The closing price of Shanghai tin's main contract was 267,490 with a daily increase of 0.38%, and the night - closing price was 266,950 with a night - increase of 0.30%. The LME tin 3M electronic disk was 33,300 with an increase of 0.53% [22]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish sentiment [28]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to other metals, including US economic data and Trump's policy announcements [22][23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price Performance: The closing price of Shanghai aluminum's main contract was 20560, the LME aluminum 3M was 2565. The closing price of Shanghai alumina's main contract was 3227, and the closing price of the aluminum alloy's main contract was 20005 [29]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [31]. - Macro and Industry News: Trump's policy on Fed governors and tariff announcements [31]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price Performance: The closing price of Shanghai nickel's main contract was 120,910, and the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,960 [33]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [37]. - Macro and Industry News: Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US; Indonesian nickel - related projects have production changes [33][34]. Lithium Carbonate - Price Performance: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 67,680, and the closing price of the 2511 contract was 67,840 [39]. - Trend Intensity: Lithium carbonate trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [41]. - Macro and Industry News: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased; The domestic energy storage market had procurement and bidding activities [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price Performance: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,450, and the closing price of PS2511 was 50,330 [42]. - Trend Intensity: Industrial silicon trend intensity is 0, and polysilicon trend intensity is 1, indicating a neutral and relatively bullish sentiment respectively [44]. - Macro and Industry News: Hebei Province promotes green - electricity direct - connection projects [43]. Iron Ore - Price Performance: The closing price of the 12509 contract was 798.5 with an increase of 8.0 and a rise - rate of 1.01% [46]. - Trend Intensity: Iron ore trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [46]. - Macro and Industry News: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a decline from the previous month [46]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price Performance: The closing price of RB2510 was 3,233 with an increase of 44 and a rise - rate of 1.38%. The closing price of HC2510 was 3,457 with an increase of 64 and a rise - rate of 1.89% [50]. - Trend Intensity: Rebar and hot - rolled coil trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [52]. - Macro and Industry News: Steel production, inventory, and demand data changes; Policy on industry competition and capacity governance [51][52]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price Performance: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 5716, and the closing price of silicomanganese 2509 was 6018 [54]. - Trend Intensity: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [57]. - Macro and Industry News: Price changes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions; Manganese ore price changes [55][58]. Coke and Coking Coal - Price Performance: The closing price of JM2509 was 1035 with an increase of 29.5 and a rise - rate of 2.9%. The closing price of J2509 was 1634.5 with an increase of 19.5 and a rise - rate of 1.2% [60]. - Trend Intensity: Coke and coking coal trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral sentiment [62]. - Macro and Industry News: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a decline from the previous month [61]. Log - Price Performance: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 829, with a daily decline of 1.5% [64]. - Trend Intensity: Log trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively bullish sentiment [66]. - Macro and Industry News: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a decline from the previous month [66]. p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - Price Performance: No specific price data provided in a summary form, but p - xylene has increasing supply - demand pressure and a weakening trend; PTA has negative demand feedback and a weakening trend; MEG rebounds driven by coal price recovery [68]. - Trend Intensity: No relevant content provided. - Macro and Industry News: No relevant content provided.