软商品日报：受助于空头回补，棉花有所支撑-20250806

Report Industry Investment Rating - Both sugar and cotton are rated as "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar: Affected by consecutive droughts from autumn to spring, sugarcane emergence and early growth in Guangxi are unfavorable, with shorter and fewer sugarcane plants compared to the same period last year. Beet growth is generally good, but recent heavy rainfall in Inner Mongolia may lead to pests and diseases. Internationally, attention should be paid to Brazil's sugar production progress and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, 4 to 7 days earlier than usual. High temperatures in Xinjiang in July pose a heat - damage risk. Cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market is in a slack season, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Weather changes and tariff uncertainties need to be monitored [1]. Data Summary Price Changes - Foreign Market Quotes: From August 3 to August 4, 2025, the price of US sugar increased by 0.31% from 16.2 to 16.25 dollars, and US cotton rose by 0.30% from 66.42 to 66.62 dollars [3]. - Spot Prices: The price of sugar in Nanning remained unchanged at 6030.0 yuan from August 1 to August 4, 2025. In Kunming, it decreased by 0.26% from 5880.0 to 5865.0 yuan. The cotton index 328 dropped by 0.70% from 3281 to 3280, and cotton in Xinjiang fell by 1.30% from 15400.0 to 15200.0 yuan [3]. Spread Changes - Sugar Spreads: From August 3 to August 4, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased by 24.00% from 50.0 to 62.0, SR05 - 09 decreased by 11.66% from - 163.0 to - 144.0, and SR09 - 01 dropped by 27.43% from 113.0 to 82.0 [3]. - Cotton Spreads: CF01 - 05 decreased by 18.18% from 55.0 to 45.0, CF05 - 09 fell by 41.38% from 145.0 to 85.0, and CF09 - 01 increased by 35.00% from - 200.0 to - 130.0 [3]. Basis Changes - Sugar Basis: From August 1 to August 4, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 decreased by 11.92% from 260.0 to 229.0, sugar 05 decreased by 6.13% from 310.0 to 291.0, and sugar 09 remained unchanged at 147.0 [3]. - Cotton Basis: The basis of cotton 01 decreased by 8.61% from 1475.0 to 1348.0, cotton 05 dropped by 8.95% from 1530.0 to 1393.0, and cotton 09 decreased by 11.76% from 1675.0 to 1478.0 [3]. Other Data - Import Price: The import price of cotton cotlookA decreased by 1.27% from 78.5 to 77.5 from August 1 to August 4, 2025 [3]. - Profit Margin: The import profit of sugar increased by 1.41% from 1597.0 to 1619.5 from August 1 to August 4, 2025 [3]. - Option Data: For options, SR509C5700 has an implied volatility of 0.0764 with a historical volatility of 7.06 for the underlying SR509; SR509P5700 has an implied volatility of 0.0707. CF509C13600 has an implied volatility of 0.096 with a historical volatility of 9.18 for the underlying CF509; CF509P13600 has an implied volatility of 0.0937 [3]. - Warehouse Receipts: From August 1 to August 4, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.36% from 19443.0 to 19373.0, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 1.40% from 8807.0 to 8684.0 [3]. Company Information - Report research is conducted by CINDA Futures Co., Ltd., a wholly - owned subsidiary of CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a large - scale and reputable domestic futures company, holding memberships in multiple exchanges [8].