工业硅现货报价持续走弱，盘面以震荡为主

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon's spot price continues to weaken, and the market is mainly oscillating. The supply pressure will increase in the short term, and the demand may decline significantly after the downstream production cut. The inventory begins to be depleted, but there is still a possibility of further decline following the fundamentals [1][2]. - For polysilicon, the expectation of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic industry still exists. The short - term sentiment turns to the fundamentals, and the price has fallen back. The supply is still under pressure, and the demand is expected to decline. The price has rebounded but may still have a short - term correction [3]. - The trading logic suggests that the fundamentals of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are currently weak, and there is a short - term risk of decline with the exchange's intervention. The recommended operation is to short industrial silicon on rallies and wait and see for polysilicon [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Supply Side - The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 silicon is 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In July, the output of industrial silicon rose to 330,000 tons, 10,000 tons more than in June. The output increase mainly comes from the southwest region, while the output in Xinjiang decreased slightly. Although the production cut by leading enterprises at the end of June relieved the supply pressure, the supply pressure will continue to increase in the short term due to the resumption of production in the southwest [2]. Downstream Demand Side - The output of polysilicon increased slightly in June, reaching 101,000 tons. After the end of the photovoltaic installation rush, the demand for polysilicon is expected to decline, but it may increase during the wet season. In the long term, the expectation of production cut due to supply - side reform is strong. The combined production cut of organic silicon monomer manufacturers has ended, but the demand for industrial silicon has declined due to short - term production stagnation. The demand for industrial silicon from alloy silicon remains stable [2]. Inventory - The inventory of industrial silicon has started to be depleted, but the social inventory has accumulated again. This week's inventory increased by 5,000 tons compared with last week, and the current social inventory is reported at 540,000 tons [2]. Polysilicon Supply Side - The price of polysilicon has rebounded, and the spot price of re - feeding material has been continuously raised to 46,000 yuan/ton. The output in June was 101,000 tons, and it is expected to increase to about 108,000 tons in July, so the supply side is still under pressure [3]. Downstream Demand Side - With the gradual withdrawal of photovoltaic subsidies and the entry of the power market into the market - oriented trading stage, the terminal installation was over - consumed in the first half of the year. The installation in June was only 13GW, showing a sharp decline. The expectation of weakening photovoltaic installation in the second half of the year is strengthened, and the demand for polysilicon will decline to a large extent [3]. Inventory - The current polysilicon inventory is about 229,000 tons, and part of the inventory has been registered on the disk. The industry still has a large pressure to reduce inventory [3].