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油脂粕类8月报:油脂等待新驱动,粕类逢低做多-20250806
Fo Shan Jin Kong Qi Huo·2025-08-06 02:48
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that oils will lack driving factors and maintain range - bound oscillations. For protein meals, it is advisable to buy on dips. [8][11] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy 3.1.1 Oils Main Viewpoints - Core Logic: The good rate of US soybeans remains high. In August, weather has a significant impact. Rainfall in the main US soybean - producing areas in the next 15 days is slightly lower than normal, and soybeans are expected to grow normally. Brazil's soybean export peak is approaching, and exports are expected to decrease. US tariff policies suppress soybean exports. Argentina will lower soybean export tariffs, squeezing US soybean demand. CBOT soybeans are weak but with limited downside. Palm oil is in the seasonal production increase period, with increased production and weak exports in Malaysia in July, indicating significant inventory accumulation. Indonesia's palm oil production recovery is unfulfilled, and inventory is low. Domestic palm oil is slowly accumulating inventory, and future purchases are few. Palm oil is affected by crude oil. Canadian rapeseed is expected to grow normally. Australia and China are close to an agreement on rapeseed exports. Rapeseed inventory is falling, and imports are expected to increase slightly in August. [8] - Cost and Profit: As of July 30, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans for September delivery is 3,777 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 121 yuan/ton. The import cost of palm oil (August shipment) is 9,340 yuan/ton, with a spot profit of - 506 yuan/ton and an August shipment spot - market profit of - 134 yuan/ton. The arrival duty - paid price of Canadian rapeseed (August shipment) is 4,942 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of 295 yuan/ton and a spot - market crushing profit of 108 yuan/ton. [8] - Supply: The estimated soybean import volume in August is 10.69 million tons, rapeseed is 195,000 tons, and palm oil is 180,000 tons. [8] - Demand: In July, the total domestic sales of bulk soybean oil from key oil mills were 463,200 tons, a 20.09% increase from the previous month. Palm oil sales were 10,376 tons, a 62.20% decrease from June. The pick - up volume of rapeseed oil from coastal oil mills was 123,400 tons, a decrease of 15,900 tons from the previous month. [8] - Inventory: As of July 25, 2025, the total commercial inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in key regions nationwide was 2.3618 million tons, a 0.07% increase from the previous week and a 17.10% increase year - on - year. [8] - Strategy: It is advisable to conduct short - term operations within the oscillation range for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage. [8] 3.1.2 Protein Meals Main Viewpoints - Core Logic: Similar to oils, US soybeans are in a good growth situation, and Brazilian and US soybeans face export challenges. In August, soybean arrivals will be large, oil mill operating rates will remain high, and soybean meal will accumulate inventory. Pig farming is promoting the reduction and substitution of soybean meal, reducing future demand. Canadian rapeseed is expected to grow normally. Australia and China are close to an agreement on rapeseed exports. Recent rapeseed arrivals are few, and coastal oil mill rapeseed meal inventory is low, but imported rapeseed meal inventory is high. Rapeseed imports are expected to increase slightly in August, and the operating rate may recover. [11] - Cost and Profit: As of July 30, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans for September delivery is 3,777 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 121 yuan/ton. The arrival duty - paid price of Canadian rapeseed (August shipment) is 4,942 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of 295 yuan/ton and a spot - market crushing profit of 108 yuan/ton. [11] - Supply: The estimated soybean import volume in August is 10.69 million tons, and rapeseed is 195,000 tons. [11] - Demand: In July, the total sales of soybean meal were 4.0215 million tons, a decrease of 954,800 tons from the previous month, a 19.19% decrease; a year - on - year increase of 1.0297 million tons, a 34.42% increase. From Week 27 to Week 31, the pick - up volume of rapeseed meal from coastal oil mills was 137,900 tons, and the consumption of imported rapeseed meal (Nantong) was 119,500 tons. [11] - Inventory: In Week 30, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0431 million tons, a 4.48% increase from the previous week and a 22.50% decrease year - on - year. It is expected that soybean meal will gradually accumulate inventory in August. In July, the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were stable at around 8 days. In Week 30, the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal oil mills was 19,000 tons, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory was 663,600 tons. [11] - Strategy: It is advisable to buy on dips for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage. [11] 3.2 2025 July Oils and Meals Market Review 3.2.1 Oils Market Review - Market Trend: In July, the oils sector oscillated strongly. The palm oil led the increase due to factors such as Malaysia's reverse - seasonal production decrease in June, strong exports and low inventory in Indonesia, and biodiesel news. The CBOT soybeans were weak, but US biodiesel news boosted US soybean oil. The rapeseed futures price oscillated, and domestic rapeseed oil inventory fell from a high level. The oils sector rose 3.29%, the palm oil main contract rose 6.84%, the soybean oil main contract rose 2.61%, and the rapeseed oil main contract rose 1.01%. [15] - Spot Price: In July, the spot prices of the three major oils oscillated strongly, with palm oil having the largest increase. On July 31, 2025, the mainstream price of rapeseed oil was 9,632 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton monthly; the average price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,372 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton monthly; the national average price of 24 - degree palm oil was 8,993 yuan/ton, up 458 yuan/ton monthly. [24] 3.2.2 Protein Meals Market Review - Market Trend: In July, soybean meal and rapeseed meal first rose and then fell. It was expected that rapeseed imports would be few from July to August, and the operating rate of oil mills would be low. Aquaculture was in the peak season, and the demand for rapeseed meal was strong. The inventory of coastal oil mill rapeseed meal was low, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory fell from a high level. Rapeseed meal was strong. In late July, CBOT soybeans continued to decline, and the demand for soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased due to pig farming regulation. [28] - Spot Price: The spot price of rapeseed meal increased significantly due to high demand and low inventory. The spot price of soybean meal oscillated strongly under the drive of rapeseed meal, with an average price of 2,945 yuan/ton on July 31, 2025, up 43 yuan/ton monthly; the average spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,600 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton monthly. [31] 3.3 Oils and Oilseeds Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 International Situation - US Soybeans: The weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is normal. The good rate is high, with a flowering rate of 76%, a pod - setting rate of 41%, and a good rate of 70% as of July 27. The soybean crushing volume in June decreased month - on - month but was at a high level in the same period of previous years, and the crushing profit recovered from a low level. [36][40][44] - Brazilian Soybeans: In July, Brazil's soybean export volume was 12.06 million tons, a 10.53% decrease from the previous month and a 25.63% increase year - on - year. The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans continued to rise. [47] - Argentine Soybeans: In June, Argentina's soybean export volume was 1 million tons, a 18.10% decrease from the previous month and a 29.11% decrease year - on - year. Argentina will lower the soybean export tariff from 33% to 26%. [50] - Indonesian Palm Oil: In May, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons due to a surge in exports. [55] - Malaysian Palm Oil: In June, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.6923 million tons, a 4.48% decrease from the previous month and a 4.77% increase year - on - year. In July, the production increased 7.07% month - on - month, exports were weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. [60][64] - Canadian Rapeseed: The weather in the main Canadian rapeseed - producing areas is normal. As of July 28, the growth of rapeseed in Saskatchewan was generally in good condition, and the good rate of rapeseed in Alberta was 60.3%. As of July 27, the rapeseed export volume decreased 72.8% from the previous week to 55,100 tons. In June, the rapeseed crushing volume increased 3% from the previous month. [67][71][76] 3.3.2 Domestic Situation - Soybeans: It is expected that 10.69 million tons of soybeans will arrive in August. As of the 30th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of oil mills was 645,590 tons, up 0.52% from the previous week. In July, the soybean import cost oscillated, and the crushing profit increased slightly. In July, the national oil mill soybean crushing volume was 10.1292 million tons, and it is estimated to be 10.15 million tons in August. [81][85][94] - Palm Oil: The import cost of palm oil increased in July. The import profit improved. It is estimated that the palm oil import volume in August will be 180,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from July. [98][102][106] - Rapeseed: The import cost of Canadian rapeseed oscillated in July. The crushing profit of imported rapeseed increased in terms of spot profit and decreased in terms of spot - market profit. It is estimated that the rapeseed arrival volume in August will be 195,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons from July. In July, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills increased. [111][114][123] - Inventory and Sales of Oils: As of July 25, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.3618 million tons, a 0.07% increase from the previous week. The inventory trends of the three major oils diverged, with soybean oil and palm oil accumulating inventory and rapeseed oil inventory falling from a high level. In July, the sales of soybean oil increased, while the sales of rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased. [127][133][136] - Inventory and Sales of Protein Meals: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills increased rapidly. In July, the sales of soybean meal decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills recovered from a low level, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory was still high. The consumption of rapeseed meal increased due to aquaculture demand. [140][144][156]