国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250806

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Gold: Non-farm payroll data weakened [2] - Silver: Small rebound [2] - Copper: LME inventory increased, prices under pressure [2] - Zinc: Weak and volatile [2] - Lead: Inventory decreased, prices supported [2] - Tin: Range-bound [2] - Aluminum: Range-bound; Alumina: Slight decline; Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: Intensified long-short game, narrow range for nickel prices [2] - Stainless steel: Constrained by supply-demand reality, raw material costs limit downside [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price and Performance: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510 and Gold T+D were 782.50 and 779.92 respectively, with daily increases of 0.14% and 0.56%. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and Silver T+D were 9075 and 9052 respectively, with daily increases of 0.40% and 0.60% [5]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Gold 2510 and Comex Gold 2510, as well as Shanghai Silver 2510 and Comex Silver 2510, showed different changes compared to the previous day [5]. - ETF and Inventory: SPDR Gold ETF's position increased by 1 to 955.94, and SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) increased by 23 to 15,044.48. Inventory changes were also observed in Shanghai and Comex [5]. - Trend Intensity: Gold and silver trend intensities are both 1, indicating a neutral and slightly positive outlook [8]. Copper - Price and Performance: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,580, up 0.32%, and the night - session closing price was 78070, down 0.65%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,635, down 0.76% [10]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Copper main contract and LME Copper 3M electronic disk changed compared to the previous day [10]. - Inventory and Spreads: LME copper inventory increased by 14,275 to 153,850, and various spreads also changed [10]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Zinc - Price and Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22380, up 0.56%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2754, up 0.90% [13]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Zinc main contract and LME Zinc changed compared to the previous day [13]. - Spreads and Inventory: Various spreads and inventory levels of zinc also showed different changes [13]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Lead - Price and Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16775, up 0.15%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1963.5, down 0.53% [17]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Lead main contract and LME Lead changed compared to the previous day [17]. - Spreads and Inventory: Various spreads and inventory levels of lead changed, with inventory decreasing [17]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]. Tin - Price and Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 267,490, up 0.38%, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 33,300, up 0.53% [20]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Tin main contract and LME Tin changed compared to the previous day [20]. - Inventory and Spreads: Inventory of Shanghai and LME tin decreased, and various spreads also changed [20]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is -1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [26]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20560, and the Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 3227. The cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum [27]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy in the futures market changed compared to the previous day [27]. - Spreads and Inventory: Various spreads and inventory levels in the aluminum industry chain showed different changes [27]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [29]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Performance: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,910, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,960 [31]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Nickel and stainless - steel main contracts changed compared to the previous day [31]. - Industry News: There were various industry news related to nickel, such as production suspensions in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting parks [31][33][34]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [35]