Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High-level volatility [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level volatility [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: High-level volatility [2] - Glass: High-level volatility [2] - Soda ash: High-level volatility [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatility [4] - CSI 500 Index: Volatility [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Volatility [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatility [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level volatility [4] - Silver: High-level volatility [6] - Pulp: Weak operation [6] - Logs: Volatility [6] - Soybean oil: Volatility with a bullish bias [6] - Palm oil: Volatility with a bullish bias [6] - Rapeseed oil: Volatility with a bullish bias [6] - Soybean meal: Volatility [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatility [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatility [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatility [8] - Live pigs: Volatility with a bearish bias [8] - Rubber: Volatility [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Wait-and-see [10] - MEG: Wait-and-see [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [11] Core Viewpoints - The trading focus of the iron ore market is on "anti-involution + stable growth", with a risk of a phased correction after the short-term emotional release. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels and pay attention to policy implementation and off-season demand [2]. - The coking coal adjustment range is relatively large due to the recent sharp increase and the less-than-expected Politburo meeting. Coke has seen five consecutive rounds of price increases, and the loss situation of coke enterprises has improved. Pay attention to the trends of hot metal and coking coal supply and the matching degree of the market with anti-involution policies [2]. - After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The overall demand for steel is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the supply-demand pressure in the steel market may increase. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2]. - After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The glass demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term, and pay attention to whether the real demand can improve [2]. - The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [4]. - The market interest rate has rebounded, and the Treasury bond trend has declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The factors driving the current round of gold price increases have not completely reversed, and it is expected that gold will maintain high-level volatility [4][6]. - The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the pulp price will operate weakly [6]. - The fundamentals of the log market are favorable, and it is expected that the log price will mainly fluctuate within a range [6]. - It is expected that the price of edible oils will fluctuate with a bullish bias, and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - It is expected that soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [8]. - It is expected that the average weekly price of live pigs may decline month-on-month, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate may maintain a slight downward trend [8]. - It is expected that the natural rubber price will remain firm, and pay attention to the impact of weather and the Thai-Cambodian border situation on rubber production [10]. - The short-term PX price fluctuates with the oil price, and the PTA price mainly fluctuates with the cost. The MEG supply pressure increases, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly, dragging down the MEG market [10]. - The polyester bottle chip market is expected to continue its weak state today, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [10][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: The global iron ore shipping volume has declined, while the arrival volume has increased significantly. The iron ore fundamentals are still acceptable in the short term, but there is a risk of a phased correction. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal adjustment range is relatively large due to the recent sharp increase and the less-than-expected Politburo meeting. Coke has seen five consecutive rounds of price increases, and the loss situation of coke enterprises has improved. Pay attention to the trends of hot metal and coking coal supply and the matching degree of the market with anti-involution policies [2]. - Rolled Steel and Rebar: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The overall demand for steel is difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance, and the supply-demand pressure in the steel market may increase. Consider going long on RB2601 and short on I2601 contracts at low levels [2]. - Glass: After the Politburo meeting, the market's speculation sentiment has cooled down, and the trading logic has returned to the fundamentals. The glass demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term, and pay attention to whether the real demand can improve [2]. Financial Products - Stock Index Futures/Options: The market's upward momentum has weakened, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [4]. - Treasury Bonds: The market interest rate has rebounded, and the Treasury bond trend has declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4]. - Gold and Silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. The factors driving the current round of gold price increases have not completely reversed, and it is expected that gold and silver will maintain high-level volatility [4][6]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The pulp market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the pulp price will operate weakly [6]. - Logs: The fundamentals of the log market are favorable, and it is expected that the log price will mainly fluctuate within a range [6]. Edible Oils and Oilseeds - Edible Oils: It is expected that the price of edible oils will fluctuate with a bullish bias, and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean producing areas and the production and sales of Malaysian palm oil [6]. - Oilseeds and Meals: It is expected that soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the US soybean weather and soybean arrivals [8]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: It is expected that the average weekly price of live pigs may decline month-on-month, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate may maintain a slight downward trend [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: It is expected that the natural rubber price will remain firm, and pay attention to the impact of weather and the Thai-Cambodian border situation on rubber production [10]. Petrochemicals - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: The short-term PX price fluctuates with the oil price, and the PTA price mainly fluctuates with the cost. The MEG supply pressure increases, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly, dragging down the MEG market. The polyester bottle chip market is expected to continue its weak state today, and the polyester staple fiber market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [10][11].
新世纪期货交易提示(2025-8-6)-20250806
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-08-06 02:53