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铁矿石期货8月报:短期需求有支撑,长期看成材反馈-20250806
Fo Shan Jin Kong Qi Huo·2025-08-06 03:01

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of iron ore is expected to shift towards fundamentals in August. Domestically, policy expectations have ebbed, while abroad, attention should be paid to tariff dynamics. In the short term, iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level in a range, and in the long term, it may weaken along with finished steel. Currently, steel mills still have high profits, so the output of hot metal remains at a high level, supporting the demand for iron ore. The inventory contradiction of iron ore is not significant, but it is expected that the shipment volume of foreign mines will increase in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to changes in iron ore demand [7][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Viewpoint Strategy - Core Logic: Domestically, policy expectations have ebbed, but the US non - farm payrolls data has been significantly revised down, increasing the probability of an interest rate cut in September. Fundamentally, steel mills still have high profits, so the output of hot metal remains at a high level, supporting the demand for iron ore. Coke is about to start the fifth round of price increase. Currently, the inventory contradiction of iron ore is not significant. It is expected that the shipment volume of foreign mines will increase in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to changes in iron ore demand [13]. - Spot and Futures Market: In July, the price of iron ore increased by 38 - 77 yuan/wet ton. The closing price of the main iron ore futures contract was 779 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.87% compared with the end of June. The basis was - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June. The unilateral open interest of iron ore first increased and then decreased in July. The price center of the iron ore Back curve shifted upwards, and the curve became slightly steeper [13]. - Spread: At the end of July, the spread between DCE and SGX iron ore was 66 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton compared with the end of June, and the spread continued to widen. At the end of July, the spread between rebar and iron ore (main contract) was 2426 yuan/ton, an increase of 144.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June; at the end of July, the rebar - to - iron ore ratio was 4.11, a decrease of 0.08 compared with the end of June [13]. 02 Macro Level - Macro News in July: In July, the black - sector fluctuated greatly under market policy expectations and capital speculation, especially in coking coal futures. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's statement at the beginning of the month and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's emphasis on capacity reduction later, along with other events, led to sharp rises and falls in coking coal prices [15]. - Construction: In July, the weekly cement delivery volume was about 275 tons, a decrease of about 15 tons/week compared with June. The weekly direct supply of infrastructure cement was about 166 tons, a decrease of about 3 tons/week compared with June. The total cement delivery volume decreased by about 75 tons/week year - on - year, and real - estate demand was a drag [18]. - Infrastructure: In July, the weekly concrete delivery volume was about 1.44 million cubic meters, basically the same as in June and year - on - year. The weekly asphalt sales volume was about 26 tons, a decrease of about 2.5 tons/week compared with June [22]. - Manufacturing: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4% month - on - month, and it was below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The steel PMI was 50.5%, returning above the boom - bust line [24]. 03 Spot and Basis - Spot Market: In July, the spot price of steel followed the futures market and strengthened. Affected by coking coal, the black - sector rebounded. The price of coking coal increased significantly, trade merchants held back sales, and the inventory of raw coal in mines decreased significantly. Coke had four rounds of price increases in July, and there was an expectation of a fifth round at the end of the month [28]. - Iron Ore Spot Price: In July, the price of iron ore increased by 38 - 77 yuan/wet ton. The price of low - grade iron powder increased less, while that of medium - and high - grade iron powder increased more. The spot benchmark price of the Beijing Iron and Steel Exchange first increased and then slightly decreased [33]. - Iron Ore Futures: As of July 31, the closing price of the main iron ore futures contract was 779 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.87% compared with the end of June. The basis on the 31st was - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June. The open interest of iron ore futures first increased and then decreased in July [35][38]. - Inter - period Spread: Compared with a month ago, the price center of the iron ore Back curve shifted upwards, and the curve became slightly steeper. As of July 31, the 5 - 9 spread was - 47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June; the 9 - 1 spread was 25.5 yuan/ton, the same as at the end of June [42][45]. 04 Spread - Cross - market Spread: At the end of July, the spread between DCE and SGX iron ore was 66 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton compared with the end of June, and the spread continued to widen [50]. - Cross - variety Spread: At the end of July, the spread between rebar and iron ore (main contract) was 2426 yuan/ton, an increase of 144.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June; the rebar - to - iron ore ratio was 4.11, a decrease of 0.08 compared with the end of June. The fundamentals of iron ore are better than those of steel. Considering the high profits of steel mills, one can consider narrowing the steel - mill profit, but also pay attention to the expectation of crude - steel production reduction [53]. 05 Supply - Global Shipment Volume: In July, the weekly shipment volume of iron ore was around 30 million tons, a decrease of about 4 million tons/week compared with June. As of the end of July, the cumulative global shipment volume was 937 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [55]. - 47 - Port Arrival Volume: In July, the weekly arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports was between 23 million and 29 million tons, higher than the same period last year. As of the end of July, the cumulative arrival volume for the year was 762 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23 million tons, a decrease of 2.99% [61]. - Domestic Mine Supply: In July, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines increased slightly, and the daily output of iron powder increased slightly [65][68]. 06 Demand - Hot Metal Output: In July, the daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel enterprises was around 2.4 million tons, 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The daily average consumption of imported iron ore was about 3 million tons [71]. - Blast - furnace Operating Rate and Capacity Utilization: In July, the operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was maintained at 83.46%, a slight decrease from the previous month. The blast - furnace capacity utilization was around 90%, a slight decrease from the previous month and an increase of about 1% compared with the same period last year [73]. - Profitability of Steel Enterprises: In July, the profitability of 247 steel enterprises continued to rise. At the end of July, the profitability rate of steel mills was 65.37%, an increase of 6.06% compared with the beginning of the month and an increase of about 60% compared with the same period last year [76]. - Production Profit: In July, the profit of producing rebar in blast furnaces continued to increase. The profit of electric furnaces in the East China region turned from negative to positive, and the profit of electric furnaces in the Southwest region exceeded 200 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils also increased [80][83][87]. 07 Inventory - Domestic Mine Inventory: In July, the inventory of iron concentrate in domestic mines continued to decline and remained at a low level [96]. - Steel - Mill Inventory: As of the end of July, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 90.1209 million tons, an increase of 1.6462 million tons compared with the end of June. Steel mills maintained a low inventory and mainly purchased on demand [98]. - Port Inventory: In July, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the overall inventory pressure was not large. As of the end of July, the iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 142.2201 million tons, a decrease of 2.5822 million tons compared with the end of June and a decrease of 14.683 million tons year - on - year [101]. - Surcharge Volume: In July, the surcharge volume remained at a high level. At the end of July, the number of ships at 45 ports was 90, an increase of 8 compared with the end of June and a decrease of 35 compared with the same period last year. The daily average surcharge volume at 45 ports was maintained above 3 million tons, higher than the same period in previous years [103].